The Tactical Fallacy

by Patrick Appel

Brendan Nyhan argues that the media often incorrectly "concludes that candidates won or lost because of their tactical choices."

The problem is that any reasonable political tactic chosen by professionals will tend to resonate in favorable political environments and fall flat in unfavorable political environments (compare Bush in '02 to Bush '06, or Obama in '08 to Obama in '09-'10). But that doesn't mean the candidates are succeeding or failing because of the tactics they are...