Is Vladimir Putin a Rational Actor?

“The goal is not to go after Mr. Putin personally; the goal is to change his calculus, to encourage him to walk the walk, not just talk the talk.”

That was President Obama speaking in Manila on Monday, shortly before the United States unveiled additional economic sanctions against Russian government officials and companies linked to Vladimir Putin. With the crisis in eastern Ukraine still escalating—just today, the mayor of Kharkiv, a city that had previously been pretty calm, was shot by unknown gunmen, leaving him critically wounded—the Obama Administration clearly felt obliged to punish Putin for failing to follow through on the deal reached in Geneva a couple of weeks ago. (The agreement stated, explicitly, “All illegal armed groups must be disarmed; all illegally seized buildings must be returned to legitimate owners; all illegally occupied streets, squares and other public places in Ukrainian cities and towns must be vacated.”)

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