The Surprising Accuracy Of Crowdsourced Predictions About The Future

Do you know whether Turkey will get a new constitution? It turns out you do: A group of well-informed citizens can predict future events more often than any foreign policy expert or CIA analyst.

If you have a question about what's going to happen next in Syria or North Korea, you might get more accurate predictions by asking a group of ordinary people than from foreign policy experts or even, possibly, CIA agents with classified information. Over the last few years, the Good Judgment Project has proven that crowdsourcing predictions is a surprisingly accurate way to forecast the future.

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