Game of Thrones Recap: The Lion and the Rose

Weddings are extremely dangerous in Westeros. People die. The royal wedding in King’s Landing was no different. Many will be happy with the result, but it doesn’t change anything. The war is still a stalemate, the Baratheons and Lannisters remain at war. The North remains in chaos, with Greyjoy and Bolton fighting for control and the Starks in hiding.

If you notice, the title of this post has the word “recap” in it, which should be an indicator that there are spoilers. But just in case:

SPOILER ALERT!!!

King Joffrey is dead, poisoned by one of his many enemies. The list is long, so to chop it down a bit, we should ask: cui bono?

To Whose Benefit?

Let’s remove the losers from the list: The Tyrells and the Lannisters. They’ve lost standing as a result of the very public assassination. The king-to-be is now Tommen Baratheon, Joffrey’s younger brother. He is too young so a regent will be appointed, most likely Tywin Lannister.

Joffrey tried to have Tyrion killed and constantly humiliated him. On a personal level, Tyrion benefits, but consider this: he thought the manner of Robb Stark’s death was a mistake. “The North never forgets.” He was also quickly arrested. The animosity between Tyrion and Joffrey is well-known in the capital. It makes no sense for Tyrion to kill Joffrey at the wedding with no escape plan or plausible deniability.

Sansa benefits big time. Her tormentor is dead, the one responsible for her father’s death. Her husband is arrested, possibly leaving her free to escape. Sansa lacks the cunning to plan it, but her drunken benefactor Ser Dontos might be behind it. Her plight appeals to the hero or guardian type, the one who has a sense that the weak should be protected. The Hound felt pity for her and offered to take her from the capital. Olenna and Marjaery both sympathize with her position and tried to take her to Highgarden. The Stark men may be dead but the children still have friends.

It just makes sense that a Stark agent committed the act. One wedding assassination, followed by another: an eye-for-an-eye. Do they have any agents in the capital?

Stannis Baratheon does not benefit strategically but certainly wanted the boy dead. Tywin is the true leader of the Lannister House, not Joffrey. To restore his claim, he needs Tommen dead is well, killing the last of King Robert’s supposed heirs.

Prince Oberyn is another suspect but he wants revenge for an old crime. Joffrey wasn’t even alive. Also, poisoning doesn’t seem like his style. I think he wants a duel.

A couple outside possibilities: Shae, Bronn, and Brynden “Blackfish” Tully. Shae and Bronn could’ve conspired to kill Joffrey in a misguided attempt to protect Tyrion. Bronn is a cunning warrior, but I don’t think he would do something this foolish. It is too high-profile for him. Blackfish is a long shot, but he would’ve had to have traveled from the Red Wedding all the way to King’s Landing without being detected, found fellow conspirators and executed it without any hint of a Tully being in the capital.

Top bet is on Ser Dontos on behalf of Sansa (3:1), then there’s Shae (5:1), Tyrion (8:1), Oberyn (10:1), Stark agent (15:1), Bronn (15:1), Stannis (25:1) and Blackfish (50:1).

The events of the royal wedding should make a lot of people happy, but in the end doesn’t change the dynamic of the war. It is a personal blow to the Lannisters, but not a political one. The Tyrells have lost a lot, unless they can somehow convince Tywin of a new marriage between Marjaery and Tommen. Usually the girl is younger, not older. A Jaime-Marjaery marriage makes more sense, uniting the two houses, forcing Jaime to rule Castlerock and be a normal prince, not a King’s Guard loner. The Loras-Cersei marriage still makes sense. But who to marry Tommen?

Lannisters need a powerful ally and to restore unity in the kingdom. Tyrell and Martell fit the bill. Frey is a house on the rise but he is a northerner and looked down upon by many. I don’t think House Arryn is very strong, and doesn’t have a female heiress. Baratheon and Greyjoy are in a state of rebellion.

Tywin could hold off on arranging a royal marriage, and perhaps commit to finishing off Baratheon. A major victory in war could help keep the houses in line, since no alliance through marriage appears possible.

Excellent episode, typical HBO fashion. One boring episode followed by a great one.

J

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