Shell Houston Open Fantasy Preview
Raise your hand if you had Steven Bowditch as your winner last week? You guys are all liars, liars I tell you. Bowditch had two career top 10s in 109 PGA TOUR starts prior to his victory last week. The oft-inaccurate bomber from Australia will now be on a lot of people’s radar, but it’s safe to avoid him unless he backs it up in his next couple starts.
Forgot about Australia and let’s move onto the Shell Houston Open. As the name implies, it’s played in Houston, Texas. The course is Golf Club of Houston, previously known as Redstone. Same course, different name, so go pick up those course history charts out of the trash. They are still useful. GC of Houston is a long course, measuring 7,441 yards on the scorecards. Bombers will feel right at home. Many will use this tournament as a prep for the Masters. If they find themselves out of contention, they may start working on particular shot shapes in anticipation of Augusta.
Last week to qualify for DraftKings $300K Masters Contest.
Correlated Stats
The stats you want to look at this week are pretty standard. Adjusted Scoring is always a good one. Par Breakers have been very important, as you’ll find two-thirds of the top-5 finishers here have been ranked 75th or better on the season when it comes to Par Breakers.
Driving Distance is more important than usual this week, but it’s not necessary. There are always alternate routes to scoring. Strokes Gained-Putting has been all over the place for this tournament. Some great putters have done well, but plenty of awful putters have also had success at GC of Houston. It would be best not to lean on SGP too heavily this week. Great ball-strikers will rise to the top this week.
Correlated Tournaments – Last 3 Winners
Humana Challenge – Patrick Reed, Brian Gay, Mark Wilson
WGC Bridgestone – Tiger Woods, Keegan Bradley, Adam Scott
Hyundai ToC - Zach Johnson, Dustin Johnson, Steve Stricker
Honda Classic – Russell Henley, Michael Thompson, Rory McIlroy
Farmers Insurance Open – Scott Stallings, Tiger Woods, Brandt Snedeker
The correlated tournaments look very similar to last weeks (3-of-5 the same) with long courses, courses susceptible to wind, and/or bermuda greens being the key, again.
Players to Watch
Matt Kuchar: You can never go wrong with Kooch. He loves long courses, he loves playing in strong-field events, and he’s only missed three cuts in his last 53 events.
Keegan Bradley: Mr. Hilfiger is not as safe as Kuchar (who is?) but he’s been a top 25 machine this year. Bradley has seven top 25s in 10 tries this year. With top 10s each of the past two years here, it’s one of those rare cases where form meets course history. Just let it happen.
Lee Westwood: Speaking of course history, Westwood has it. He hasn’t finished outside the top 30 in any appearances here. He is still searching for his form this year. It wouldn’t be too surprising if he found it this week.
Louis Oosthuizen: If you have the guts, play Shrek. His course history is great and claims to be healthy. There is a big difference between saying you’re healthy and actually proving it.
Brian Davis: Three top 10s here over the past five years. Couple that with back-to-back decent outings by Davis and you may have fireworks this week.
Graham DeLaet: GDL was so two months ago. Many have already forgotten about Graham’s scorching start to the season, but I haven’t. He’s one of the best ball-strikers on TOUR and has a ton of length off the tee. Both come in very handy at the SHO.
Charles Howell III: Chucky Three Sticks is having himself a season. Five top 10s in 13 tournaments and only one missed cut. He gets a slight boost for me this week as well since he’s one of the golfers trying to play his way into the Masters via win.
Jimmy Walker: This is one of those cases where recent form battles with course history. Walker supporters will point to his round of 63 in 2011 when he tied the course record. When you take a step back you will see that Walker’s finished 70th or worse in six of the nine times he’s played the Shell Houston Open. I think form wins out in this case, and Walker makes the cut. Course history won’t go down without a fight though, as I think Walker will finish outside the top 15.
Webb Simpson: Webb is an easy-fade when it comes to strong field tournaments. Considering his recent slide, it’s even easier. I’m expecting him to hang around the cut line like he usually does in strong fields.
Dustin Johnson: #1 in the field in just about any stat you wanna know. The problem there is small sample size. Hard to fade DJ right now the way he’s swinging, but sometimes regression hits hard.
Kevin Stadler: Third in the field when it comes to Strokes Gained-Tee2Green. That makes him a sneaky option in Yahoo! A group if you’re gutsy enough. The problem is and always will be his putting. The Baby Walrus is someone who could benefit from softer conditions if showers hit over the weekend. Assuming he makes the weekend.
Matteo Manasesero: The Italian was mentioned in my DraftKings edition the other day, and I still like him two days later. It may be a stretch for him to be in my top 10, but that’s where I see him finishing this week. More of a gut feeling than anything. Feel free to lower him down your rankings if you’re not on the same page. I won’t blame ya.
Kevin Streelman: Streelman has been quiet but steady this year. He’s made 8-of-8 cuts and hasn’t finished outside of 53rd place all season. I don’t love the course for him, but hard to ignore that form.
There are so many viable options this week, I can’t write about them all. Tringale, Harman, Noh barely missed my top 25. Palmer fell out due to his hip injury. The field is pretty loaded, feel free to comment below if you have any questions or comments on particular golfers.
My Top 25 for the 2014 Shell Houston Open
1. Matt Kuchar
2. Keegan Bradley
3. Jordan Spieth
4. Dustin Johnson
5. Rory McIlroy
6. Bill Haas
7. Matteo Manassero
8. Sergio Garcia
9. Graham Delaet
10. Luke Donald
11. Henrik Stenson
12. Chris Stroud
13. Charley Hoffman
14. Charles Howell III
15. Freddie Jacobson
16. Jason Kokrak
17. Jimmy Walker
18. Charl Schwartzel
19. Chris Kirk
20. Hunter Mahan
21. Ian Poulter
23. Steve Stricker
24. Daniel Summerhays
25. Phil Mickelson
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