The seven steps of highly effective counterinsurgents: A new RAND guide

There are seven
steps usually seen in negotiating an end to an insurgency, according to a new RAND
study, "From Stalemate to Settlement." It looks at Northern Ireland, the Philippines,
Lebanon, Western Sahara, Mozambique, Indonesia, Kampuchea, Bosnia, Tajikistan,
Burundi, Chechnya, and Congo. Only in one case were the seven steps followed
exactly in the sequence here, the study says, but "each case unfolded in a
manner close enough to this narrative that it is a useful comparative tool for
understanding how to reach negotiated settlements." 

Those steps are:

Military stalemate




Acceptance of
insurgents as legitimate negotiating partners




Brokered
cease-fire (not always respected)




Official
intermediate agreement




Power-sharing
offer (or other concession, such as amnesty or elections)




Moderation of
insurgent leadership




Third-party
guarantor