Missing Hugh Howey’s Point

I’ve been quasi following all the interweb discussions of Hugh Howey’s Author Earnings reports and I can’t help but think that many of the naysayers are missing the point…

Disclaimer: by quasi following, I mean that I read Howey’s first report, skimmed the second, read one or two of the posts criticizing his methodologies and conclusions, and I skimmed through some of the comments both on his blog and on other discussions about his analysis.

Like I said: Quasi paying attention.

But my overall impressions are thus:

I agree that statistics and methodology matter and that one can’t leap to definitive conclusions based on limited or flawed data. I have a Masters Degree. I took statistics. I know about research.

But… I have a few buts. (LOL. I said butts.)

BUT #1

The simple fact is that it’s not possible to control all the variables or get the raw data (much of it proprietary to Amazon, other retailers, the publishers and/or authors) needed to do a study that would stand up to academic scrutiny. Not possible. So I commend Howey for creatively gathering what data he could and being open about its limitations.

BUT #2 (and this is the big but) (LOL I said big butt)

I think to quibble about the methodologies or the extrapolated conclusions (which were all stated as theses, not facts) misses the point.

And the point?

Well, what I took away was based not only on Howey’s study, but also on the huge amount of anecdotal evidence I’ve heard and read from talking to countless authors, reading blogs, attending conferences, observing the bestseller lists, following author advances and print runs for more than a decade.

And my conclusion and the important point to me is:

Through self-publishing, (especially in genre fiction, which is what Howey was talking about), more authors are earning decent incomes than ever before. Way more authors are earning way more money.

No, not every self-published author is selling a million books. But certainly no one can argue that every traditionally published author ever has been, either… Let’s just stipulate that the million-dollar earners are outliers in any form of publishing.

The thing is… in the trad publishing world, most authors did not (do not) make very much money. I know, or have met, a lot of traditionally published genre-fiction authors who, to an outside observer, would seem to be highly successful. By “highly successful” I mean they’ve published at least one book a year, with a major publisher over at least a decade, and not only receiving above-average-for-their-genre advances, but also earning-out their advances on all or most of their titles. And many of them have hit bestseller lists and/or won big awards. And yet many of those “highly successful” authors have been earning an annual income barely above, or in many cases WAY below the poverty line. Most genre-fiction authors have needed a second income to survive.

And many of those same authors, via self-publishing, are now earning a real living — for the first time in their supposedly successful careers. Finally they are making $2 or more per book from the sales of titles that their publishers had given up on years ago, and had only been paying them royalties of $0.25 (or less) per book, when they did have them up for sale.

These authors, by pricing their back lists (and often front lists) at less than $10, (the price point that the traditionally publishers seem to like for e-books), are finding new readers and growing the sales of both their self-published and their traditionally published titles.

The point is that self-publishing has empowered authors in a way that’s never been possible before. It’s allowed them to actually earn a living doing what they love, rather than having to supplement with another job or a spouse’s income. It’s allowed authors to earn closer to what authors know we’re worth–and I’m sure most readers would agree we’re worth. Sure, most of us love what we do, but writing novels is hard, hard work and we deserve to get paid to do it.

I think it would probably shock avid readers to learn that their (outwardly successful) favorite author has been earning less than $20K a year. And let’s face it, in the past most genre fiction authors in the traditional world, would have been happy to be earning a steady 20K a year over a number of years. Especially after expenses. And most places that’s really hard to live on.

Through self-publishing, many of those same authors are earning several times that much. And they can put out books at their own speed and control the covers and marketing. While still not controllable, the amount of effort they expend is now more closely related to the amount of income they earn. More books + better books = more money.

Yes, it’s true that self-publishing also means that anyone can publish a book, so there’s a hell of a lot of crap out there. And there are so many titles it can be hard to stand out from the crowd.

So no, not every author who’s self-publishing is pulling in buckets of money. Not by a long shot. (I also believe the analyses that have concluded that the average self-pubbed author only makes about $200 a year.)

BUT THAT’S NOT THE POINT. I’d wager that the vast majoriy of those people earning $200 a year or less aren’t treating it like a career, or even bothering to learn the first thing about writing or publishing.

I’m only talking about authors who are serious about this shit.

And regardless, the whole point of Howey’s analysis is to show that many more authors are doing better under the new world order than was even possible under the old world order.

For me, looking to the future and really wanting to earn a living doing this thing called writing fiction, it’s all about weighing the possibilities and probabilities and deciding where to make the big bets. And sure, in traditional publishing one or two authors a year make out like bandits. Their book hits the tops of all the lists and they get a movie deal and multiple foreign rights deals and become set for life.

But at most there are one or two books like that a year. If that. And meanwhile every other author earns peanuts. PEA-NUTS. (Even for authors who receive those (rare)) six-figure advances, when you amortize that over how many years it takes to write and publish a book, and then deduct the expenses of being an author and running your own business… Very few authors earn a good living.)

Now, I do agree that in self-pubbing it’s similarly unlikely to be raking in millions and hitting the tops of the lists. It’s not a get rich scheme.

But in these first few years of self-publishing, (which, let’s face it, only started to be a serious pursuit after KDP started), I’d guess the number of huge, break-out successes have been more like 5 or 6 a year than 1 or 2… Even if that rate doesn’t continue going forward, even if the opportunities to make out like a bandit are becoming fewer and fewer as there are more books out there and more competition for reader attention — I 100% believe that WAY more authors are earning above-peanuts-level incomes self-publishing. WAY more.

My assertion is supported by listening to authors talk. And it’s supported by logic (more volume x higher royalties per book = better living)… And it’s supported by Howey’s analysis.

And that, to me, is the point that the naysayers miss by quibbling about the methodology and statistics.

It bears repeating:

Through self-publishing, (especially in genre fiction), more authors are earning decent incomes than ever before. Way more authors are earning way more money.

I’m not yet one of them, but I’m hopeful.

end rant