What Will Justice Kennedy Do?

Silver tries to weigh the intangibles:

I'm not qualified to analyze the merits of Perry v. Schwarzennegerpoint of view from a legal positivist point of view, I will deign totake a crack at it from a legal realist frame. It seems to me that mostof the "intangibles" bear upon Justice Kennedy in ways that favor hisfinding Constitutional protection for same-sex marriage. For one thing,he'll be 75 or 76 by the time the SCOTUS hears this case, and willprobably be thinking about his legacy. Given...