David's Saga: A continuing series on work today and related topics. Episode 16: The End of Jobs

In the previous episode, David and Susan tried to figure out the wisest approach to donating their time and money.  Having enjoyed the unusually deep conversation, they decided to go even deeper: "what's going to happen with all the jobs getting automated and offshored?"

This time, it wasn't a dialogue. It was something David has been thinking about for a long time:

"All we keep hearing is how jobs are disappearing. First it was ATMs replacing tellers, then self-checkout replacing supermarket checkers. Now they're developing driverless vehicles, robotic fast-food chefs and servers, baristas, and bartenders. 

"Wonderful, transformative teachers will, on video, teach classes using immersive simulations and interactivity. Millions of teachers from elementary school to graduate school will thus be replaced by a better digital version. The human touch will be provided by lower-paid paraprofessionals.

"IBM is developing a robot that will replace those annoying clothing sales people---It will use a laser to instantly get your measurements and walk you to clothes that will look great on you.

"IBM is also developing Dr. Watson, software designed to be better than human doctors at diagnosing and recommending treatment. Indeed, artificial intelligence is replacing all sorts of professionals, from accountants to insurance adjusters.

"There simply won't be enough jobs.

"They've always said that every time a technology was invented: the cotton gin was going to eliminate farming jobs. The car was going to eliminate blacksmith and buggywhip makers. Yet every time, more jobs are created. But this time it will be different because unlike previous generations of manufacturing, when you develop a piece of software, essentially no more people are required to distribute it to millions of people worldwide. Besides, the cost of hiring an American has gone wild, with ObamaCare merely the latest on top of disability, worker's comp, Social Security, ADA compliance, Family and Medical Leave, and defending the ever increasing number of worker-rights lawsuits. With demographic trends and the Democrats' far superior messaging machine, Internet strategy and ground game, and with the media at their back. this ain't no pendulum: it's a long-term trend.

"So what's going to happen? In the short run, the middle-class will keep getting hollowed out. The people who are software engineers and such for corporations that make silicon-based products--the Apples, Googles, Amazons--will do fine. And people in such non-offshoreable, not automatable professions like dentist, occupational therapist, and fitness trainer will be okay. But most other folks, because of automatization, will have no choice but to take a menial service job like restaurant worker or janitor, or be on the taxpayer's dole. To avoid a revolt, the government is going to have to keep extending unemployment checks indefinitely, or institute a guaranteed income. 

"With few people making good incomes, only companies that make basics will  stay viable.  Even car manufacturers will go out of business because people will keep their cars longer and longer, repairing and repairing rather than replacing. 

"People won't be able to afford to fly--the cost of the airplanes and the fuel will be beyond what people can pay, even if the airlines were to make no profit and the government were to nationalize them. 

"And of course, it becomes a vicious cycle. The more companies that go out of business, the fewer the jobs, and the less income people make. 

"And so what will happen in the long-term?  My best guess is that we will become a much less materialistic society. We'll live very simply, much like we did centuries ago except that with computers and software being cheap, everyone will have technology to enhance their lives beyond that in earlier centuries. The focus of government and private initiatives will be on the very basics like health care, which will continue to improve thanks to that ever improving technology. 

"People need to work to have a sense of meaning and so they will continue to work at low or even no pay, just as so many journalists, artists, even reader reviewers on Amazon do today. 

"And we'll have more spare time, which we will, hopefully, use wisely. Rather than getting stoned on pot--which I'm sure will be legalized nationwide if only to anesthetize the population through its economectomy--more people will focus on creative expression through writing and the arts, and through relationships: mentoring, friendship, and family. And the lack of materialism will be good for the environment. So crazy at it sounds, I like to think the end of jobs, may, net, be good for humankind."

Susan responded, "So every time I hear of another mass layoff or roboticization of some job, I should cheer?"

"Maybe."

And with that, David and Susan stared into the fire until all that was left in their personal pyrospectacular were a few embers floating into the chimney. Alas, tomorrow was to be less peaceful.

I hope to post the next episode tomorrow (Tuesday) morning.