Is Facebook Dying? Ctd

Dish readers are the best scrutinizers out there:

I saw the study you highlighted pop up across the Internet (including on Facebook, how meta!) a few days ago and I’m glad you brought some of the criticism to light. One that I have not seen pertains to a critical assumption. The model seems to fit the data pretty well, which is “Facebook” searches on Google. But then the authors make the assumption that searches on Google are a proxy for usage of the actual Facebook website. I’m no expert, but that seems like a strong assumption to make without knowing for sure if there is a good correlation. How many people actually access Facebook by typing it into Google instead of directly putting in the web address? Seems to me that Google searches are a better proxy for interest in news about Facebook the company. I’m no fan of Facebook and quite honestly I’d like to believe the predictions, but I’d like to know more from people who are in the field (any readers out there?) before believing the hype.

Another is on the same page:

I use Facebook daily. I haven’t googled it in years.

Another goes deeper:

To answer the question succinctly, “No” – and the reason is because of something that most people predicting its demise tend to miss: that being on Facebook is an interconnected experience; since it’s where your friends are, there are huge disincentives to leaving. Sure, I can go decide I’m going to “switch” to Google+, but if my friends aren’t there, what kind of experience am I going to have? This is not like trading in your AOL email account for Gmail, or switching Web browsers.

True, Facebook’s precursor, Myspace, did die, but keep in mind that at its peak, Myspace had 125 million users; Facebook is over one billion. That creates exponentially more interconnectedness.

Yes, some young people seem to be leaving the platform. They are the ones with the time and the inclination to make the switch, and don’t have the deep layers of friendship that an adult does, from childhood friends to college roommates to former co-workers. The real struggle for Facebook going forward is that it – and its stockholders – may have to get used to skewing older, because most of us probably aren’t going to leave.

One more:

Facebook itself has published a refutation to the study. They also show that using the same methodology as the Princeton researchers, that Princeton University is on the way out.

Heh.