Social Mobility Hasn’t Fallen: What It Means and Doesn’t Mean

I’m fascinated by the finding, in an extensive new study, that social mobility in the United States has stayed pretty constant over the past few decades. This conclusion challenges the standard narratives presented by the left and the right, and its political implications will be much discussed. But first things first: where did it come from?

In one sense, the finding isn’t so surprising. While it has been widely assumed that social mobility is declining—in a speech last month, President Obama said as much—previous academic studies also failed to consistently identify any trend. Some showed a decline in mobility; at least one showed an increase; and most raised some tricky statistical issues. Perhaps the most influential paper, originally published in 2006, was by Chul-In Lee, of Konkuk University, in Korea, and Gary Solon, of Michigan State University. Lee and Solon examined data from the Panel Study of Income Dynamics, a long-running survey that tracks income and other characteristics of about five thousand families nationwide.

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