Towards Economic Humility

Gregory Mankiw has a long wonky article on the stimulus:

The question for economists now is whether the administration'sassumptions, and the model based on them, were correct. After all, ifwe could be sure their model was right, we would know what to concludewhen their stimulus plan was followed by 10% unemployment: The patientwas sicker than they thought, and unemployment would surely have beenhigher still if not for the stimulus. (Indeed, since Obama's advisorsdo believe their model was...