Why Is Lightning Getting Less Fatal?

Rebecca J. Rosen investigates the question:

In the lightning-death literature, one explanation has gained prominence: urbanization. Lightning death rates have declined in step with the rural population, and rural lightning deaths make up a far smaller percent of all lightning deaths (see figure at right). Urban areas afford more protection from lightning. Ergo, urbanization has helped make people safer from lightning. …

But is the move from farms to cities what is driving the decline? Sure, lightning deaths and the rural population both declined during the 20th century, but so did a lot of other things, for instance, the percent of people living without electricity and plumbing, two infrastructural improvements that also help make your home less vulnerable to lightning. Of course, the development of better infrastructure—what I’ll refer to as modernization—is related to urbanization, but it is not limited to urban areas. Over the 20th century, rural infrastructure modernized as well. How can we know how much each is driving the decline in lightning deaths?

There’s one number we’d really need, and that’s the death rate for the rural population over time. If the rural rate held steady, than urbanization is responsible. If it too dropped, we’d be able to get a glimpse of the relative merits of the urbanization and modernization theories.