Palin's Chances

Larison is betting that Palin won't get the GOP nomination. He admits that it "is possible that the GOP will decide to immolate itself as part of an
elaborate reality TV experiment, but they have every incentive not to
want to do that":

If she did somehow pull it off, Democrats would spend most of thesummer and fall of 2012 rubbing their eyes in disbelief at their goodfortune. Even in a fairly polarized national electorate whereMcCain/Palin could manage to get 47% of the vote in the midst of...