Fromkin on the change in the historical outlook of people in recent centuries, plus Howard on the advent of modern armies

In David Fromkin's
very interesting Europe's
Last Summer: Who Started the Great War in 1914?, I was struck by this aphoristic observation: "Before the nineteenth
century began men had looked backward to a golden age. Now they looked forward
to it."

It
made me think somehow of Michael Howard, who in War in European History makes
the point that around the beginning of the 20th century, two non-European
powers (the United States in 1898 and Japan in 1904) defeated European powers
(Spain and Russia).

A
third jump: Howard also says in that book that the first modern army, which he
defines as combining infantry, artillery, and cavalry, appeared in 1494. That
would mean we are just past 500 years into "modern military history."

I
am not sure what all this means. But I do like writers who are not afraid to
make bold, sweeping assertions that almost have the quality of aphorisms. It
seems to me the opposite of the academic fashion of making points as small and
tentative as possible. "Initial research indicates that Confederate brass
buttons may have declined in quality with the passage of time midway during the
Civil War, at least in the eastern theaters of operations, but the evidence
from west of the Mississippi is less conclusive. More study is needed."