Dissent Of The Day, Ctd

A reader writes:

Speaking of the Iraq surge, you write that:

I did not foresee the
in violence in Iraq - although I did foresee
the failure of the surge to achieve political reconciliation.

The truth, I believe, is that the surge had little to do with the drop in violence.  Part of the drop in violence is attributable to diplomatic gains in the Anbar province (where no extra troops were sent, incidentally), and most of the rest is simply due to the basic nature of ethnic conflict: it...