Forecasting U.S. Stock Returns

Neil Hume of FT Alphaville directs us to Jim Reid of Deutsche Bank:

A century-long look at the US equity market: If you are a market historian, you have to decide whether the 1900-[to:]-end-1994 best fit line was vaguely the correct basis for a long-term trend of equity prices or whether you believe something changed fundamentally in the mid-1990s in a positive manner (earnings?, the economy?, EM?) that permanently elevated the price level of Western equity markets. If you don’t believe that...