Dems enjoy edge on generic ballot

Associated Press

There's quite a bit of interest lately in political controversies and efforts to connect them to the White House, but as an electoral matter, there's a limit to the utility: President Obama won't be on the ballot again.

But, Republicans argue, there will be important midterm elections in November 2014, and if the public has soured on the president, it's likely his party will be punished accordingly. Democratic dreams of taking back the U.S. House majority will be dashed, and the Senate Democratic majority, already weakened by retirements, will be in jeopardy.

It was therefore interesting to see the new Washington Post/ABC News poll ask the generic-ballot question: "If the election for the U.S. House of Representatives were being held today, would you vote for the Democratic candidate or the Republican candidate in your congressional district?"

If the various "scandals" are hurting the president's party, it is not yet reflected in the data: Democrats lead Republicans on the generic ballot by eight points, 48% to 40%. There's no recent trend line, but late last month, Quinnipiac released a similar poll, and it showed Dems with a four-point advantage.

For context, note that shortly before the 2006 midterms, when Democrats took back both chambers, they also had an eight-point lead in a Washington Post/ABC News generic-ballot poll.

I remain skeptical of House Dems being able to pick up a net gain of 17 seats -- redistricting tilted the playing field against them heavily -- but so long as they enjoy an advantage this large over the GOP, it's at least possible.