And my prediction goes to...

     OK, let's start with the caveats... I haven't seen all these nominees. But then, you could probably say the same thing about most of the voters. In any case, my own Oscar predictions will be based partly on my own sentimentality and much on having been an avid Oscar follower for over 40 years. Yes, even as a young boy, sitting in a double wide trailer on Damron Road in Mossyrock Washington, I was watching the Academy Awards. I was watching when the streaker ran past David Niven, when Sasheen Littlefeather put in her appearance in place of Marlon Brando, and when Cher failed to read the Oscar Style Guide, year after year.
     Plus, as I mentioned just before I made my Super Bowl prediction (49'ers win!) I seem to love public humiliation. So, approximately eight hours before the ceremony starts, here are my picks:


Best Picture ---  I've only seen a few of these. Dawn really wanted to see Silver Linings Playbook, and I really wanted to see Zero Dark Thirty, but we didn't make it to either one. Instead, my prediction goes to one that I did see, and really loved: Argo. In fact, it was probably my favorite movie of all of 2012. How Ben Affleck didn't even get a nod for Best Director, I do not know. The fact that he didn't probably saved me from a wrong pick, though, because I would have picked him.


Best Actor ---  I think this is a great group of actors, and in fact, I like them all. I'm even more likely to go see a movie if any of them are in it. Still, this is a slam-dunk, I think. There's something about Daniel Day-Lewis that Academy voters love. I don't think anyone else has a shot here, realistically, although my dark horse would be Bradley Cooper. I think his turn is yet to come, though.


Best Actress ---  This feels like a two horse race to me. Did you know there's 77 years difference in the ages between the oldest and youngest nominees in this category? Emmanuelle Riva is turning 86 tonight and Quvenzhane Wallis (yes, I had to look up how to spell that!) is 9. Either one of them would undoubtedly make for a charming acceptance speech, but I don't see it happening. Naomi Watts is along for the ride in a well-received movie that did almost no business. It comes down to Jessica Chastain and Jennifer Lawrence, two actresses that have smartly built an incredible career trajectory for themselves. This is one of my sentimental picks: Jennifer Lawrence because she reminds me of my wife as a young girl.


Supporting Actor ---  Really, another great group of actors, and it would make me happy to see any of them win. I think it comes down to Robert De Niro and Tommy Lee Jones. Phillip Seymour Hoffman was so good in a bad movie (The Master, and yes, I saw it) that I don't think he can win. I think it's the newer, softer, De Niro who takes home the little gold man. Too bad, because I would love to see Tommy Lee Jones at the podium, and that's a speech I would look forward to.


Supporting Actress ---  Two words: Anne Hathaway. Say what you will about Les Mis (and a lot has been said, like the fact that Russell Crow sounded like he was strangling a chicken when he sang) but Anne Hathaway chopped off all her hair, looked as bad as she possible could, lost weight off her already spare frame and gave an over-the-top emotional performance. This equals Oscar gold. Thanks to everyone else for showing up.


Best Director --- Since Affleck didn't even get nominated, this one feels like a toss up between Steven Spielber and Ang Lee. I've gotta go with this Steven Spielberg guy. He hasn't won in a long time (Schindler's List, I think) and Lincoln was really well received. Still, there are rumors of some resentment toward Spielberg around the Academy, so the surprise could be Ang Lee for Life of Pi. 


Animated Feature Film ---  I was happily surprised to see ParaNorman get a nod here. I thought it was a great movie, but not the type that often gets Oscar nominations. In the end, I believe the Pixar fairy dust strikes again and Brave wins. It had more of the epic scope that Oscar voters tend to favor, not to mention it was a really fun movie to watch with your four year old granddaughter. If I had to pick a dark horse here, it would be Wreck It Ralph. 


Original Song --- This is a category that you might expect a musical like Les Mis to dominate. The problem is, the award is for the best original song. Almost all the songs in Les Mis were around long before the movie. That's the reason they added one song just for the movie - Suddenly. I didn't think it was much of an addition, and I don't think it will win. Overall, the Academy hasn't been kind to pop superstars on Oscar night, but I think that changes this year. I'm picking Adele's Skyfall to win.


And, that's all the picks I'm going to make. I'm sure there are people in Hollywood who care about who wins Best Cinematography and Best Costume, but I'm not gonna take a stab at them all here.


So, what about you... want to tell me where I got it wrong?