THINKING 101, Lesson 6: Gambler's Fallacy

The fallacy goes like this: If an event is statistically "due" (or "overdue") then it is more probable than at other times.

For example, if we flip a coin 3 (or 10 or 100) times, and get all heads, we are tempted to think that the odds of getting tails on the next flip are higher than usual.

It doesn't work that way. When flipping a coin, or doing anything else in which the events are physically independent of each other, the odds are the same each time.

With flipping coins, that's 50% for heads and 50% for tails, every time, no matter what came before.

When dating, if four in a row turn out to be "frogs," are the chances of the fifth being a "prince" or "princess" any better? Sorry.

Happy thinking!