Special Causes and Common Causes

Hot Times in the Old Town Tonight

You will hear it said that February 2010 was the second-warmest February on record, which indeed it may be.  (Whether it is the second-warmest based on raw data or the second-warmest based on adjusted data, I do not know.)  We are, however, in an El Nino, and "the Kid" typically drives dramatic spikes in the temp record, and are subsequently [and properly:] discounted in assessment of trends.  "Weather," as they say, "is not climate." 

But what is interesting a...