Loftus's Outsider Test for Faith viewed in HD with Bayes's Theorem

In a recent post, I mentioned that anyone interested in the discussion regarding "atheism versus faith" should be reading John Loftus. Particularly, I noted an argument from his excellent Why I Became an Atheist,
the "Outsider's Test for Faith" (OTF), which he is elaborating upon in a
new book of that title to be published by Prometheus Books next spring.
Subsequently, I made a comment that piqued his interest by saying that
"[the OTF could be] greatly strengthened by appropriately applying
Bayes's theorem." Since my background is in mathematics, this caught
John's attention.



To quickly clarify what I mean by that, I do not mean to imply that I
can improve upon the OTF itself but rather that a clear understanding of
Bayes's theorem, which is a mathematical result that underlies
essentially all hypothesis-test reasoning, will greatly enhance the
rigor with which someone might view what the OTF is telling them--and
perhaps get them to take it much more seriously than they might have
otherwise. That's one thing about mathematics--it's nearly impossible to
argue with it, try as some ideologues might (maybe they should call
Nate Silver about that?).

LINK (HT: Richard Carrier)