How do Afghans perceive their future, one year ago and today?

Arriving in Kabul on December 30, 2012, I was eager to find out what had changed since the last time I had arrived almost exactly one year ago.

During that very long visit—I had planned not to exceed two weeks but lasted till the end of April—I spoke with Afghans from almost all walks of life, government ministers and employees of all levels of import, parliamentarians, journalists, judges, military officers and soldiers, as well as shopkeepers, and laborers.

Their understanding what might be in store for them in the future was as similar in some ways, yet varied, reflecting their position in the political regime, professions, level of wealth, and education. The one common thread in all of these diverse thought was a deep sense of puzzlement over “America’s design” and their inability not just to understand, but to do anything about it.

When I asked people with power and influence—from both the government and private sector— about the withdrawal of international combat forces from their country by the end of 2014, they almost uniformly expressed disbelief that it would happen. Most concurred that Europeans, Australians, Canadians, and even the Turks could and probably would withdraw their troops but, they said with a knowing smile, that the U.S. would stay on and protect the Afghan regime from the insurgents. Despite their obvious and strong desire to see the U.S. military presence continue in significant numbers and as an actively fighting unit, I could not help noticing that they weren’t sure whether to be happy that, as they believed, the U.S. would continue to fight the insurgents or instead be dejected by a continuing,heavy American military presence.

A majority of Afghans last year felt an acute insecurity about America’s endgame. I gained the conviction that they entertained strong doubts about America’s true plans and felt that the U.S. was playing its own game, whcih they resignedly professed that they couldn’t understand and mistrusted. As one of them said, “America is using us for its own purposes, not to help us find peace.”

Most of the less fortunate Afghans, a vast majority that never saw an improvement in their lives over the past decade but saw those in positions of power assemble massive fortunes, expressed similar feelings, but more often than not with clear expressions of hostility towards America. Others would resignedly say that Afghanistan is merely a pawn in the geopolitical battle of the rich nations; nothing would be done to improve the lot of the Afghan people.

The most astounding view I encountered was that the simple folks, the disheveled mass thatcrowds Kabul’s streets and walk somewhat aimlessly about the rundown city, expressed almost uniform animosity towards both the U.S. and the Karzai regime and openly wished for the return of the Taliban, albeit a somewhat reformed and more humane version.

When I heard what I heard and saw what I saw in that terribly cold winter of 2012, I began to wonder where the American administration and, yes, even the media, got their information. There have been, after all many reassuring pronouncements and columns that proclaimed that the death of over 2000 American soldiers and the loss of half a trillion dollars had not been in vain.

Although, I was reluctant to agree with those cloudless descriptions of the war in Afghanistan, I have always been ready to give those who should be in the know — reporters in Afghanistan and our government officials– the benefit of the doubt, sometimes questioning myself, wondering if they knew something that I didn’t.

While my disagreement in 2012 with the bulk of reports in the American media bothered me, I kept my opinions largely to myself.

Now I have returned. What will I find during my present stay in Kabul.

2013 marks the beginning of the first year of the remaining two of America’s combat role in Afghanistan. What will the Afghan political and economic leadership think now? Is it still convinced that America will stay to fight the insurgency or have they accepted the idea that they will have to do their own fighting after 2014? And do they think they can prevail?