Arthur's Blog: Ultra-Tough Conditions Predicted for Thanksgiving and Christmas Fliers

The number of flights has been drastically cut. Yet the number of potential passengers is considerably up, reflecting renewed economic confidence by the American public. The seats already sold for Thanksgiving dates are therefore nearing 97% of capacity, with most vacancies only on red-eye flights. The flights for Christmas are almost as full. The upshot, according to Scott Mayerowitz of the Associate Press (who appeared as a guest on last weekend's The Travel Show): big problems for Americans who haven't yet made their flight reservations for those two big holiday periods.
Don't expect any last-minute discounts or deals, he says. The airlines want full price. Don't plan on arriving at airports a scant hour or so in advance of departure. The heavy presence of inexperienced, once-a-year travelers will mean big lines and slow processing at the security gates (unlike frequent travelers, these amateur flyers won't arrive with slip-on shoes, easily doffed). And don't, whatever you do, bring along fully-wrapped Christmas or Thanksgiving presents -- they will need to be clumsily unwrapped by sharp-eyed TSA agents. Keep the wrapping paper and the ribbons separate from the gifts, and wrap them stylishly only after you have passed through security.
Any other holiday advice from this long-experienced aviation maven? If you are able to obtain a recently-cancelled seat, make sure it's for one of the first, early-morning flights of the day. Severe weather conditions in late November and late December may cause flights to be cancelled, and your best bet will be for a flight scheduled later in the day, to which you can transfer. But if you have booked a late afternoon or early evening flight, you may have no remaining flights to try for. That's fairly obvious, right?
And if you're still looking for one of those holiday-period flights, you'll find that the cheapest ones are those requiring a connecting flight en route. Indeed, those awkward connecting flights, and not non-stop flights, may be the only affordable options avaiable to you.
Better yet, consider flying out on Thanksgiving day itself, or on Christmas day itself, when the airports are quiet and planes have some seats left. Though you'll arrive late for that Thanksgiving or Christmas dinner, you will at least have arrived. Bon Voyage!