Cassidy’s Count: Can Romney Win Without Ohio?

With President Obama holding onto, and by some accounts solidifying, his lead in Ohio, the key question consuming both campaigns now is whether Mitt Romney can find another route to victory in the electoral college without the Buckeye State. The answer is he could, but not easily. In addition to carrying Florida and Virginia, two states where he is narrowly ahead, he would have to win Wisconsin, where Obama has been in the lead all year, or else sweep Colorado, Iowa, Nevada, and New Hampshire. Neither of these outcomes is out of the question. But to bring either one of them about, Romney would need another two or three point swing in his favor in the battleground states. With less than a week and a half to go until Election Day, that’s a big ask.

Here’s a look at the electoral math, together with an update on the latest polling data, and a few changes to The New Yorker’s electoral map. Let’s start with the polls.

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