Wave a banknote at a pundit and he'll predict anything | Simon Jenkins

Of course it is outrageous to jail scientists for honest errors, but it is legitimate to hold them to some account

On the evening of 5 April 2009, Luigi Guigno of L'Aquila in Italy was phoned by a sister terrified by tremors under their village. He told her not to worry. Government experts in "the forecasting and prevention of major risks" had just been on the news declaring there to be "no danger" of an earthquake. They need not go out into the street. A few hours later an earthquake struck a...