Power wins wars, but a lot depends on what kind of power you use and when

By Col.
Jason Brown, USAF

Best
Defense guest columnist

In
years to come, historians will ask important questions about the role of power
in the Iraq and Afghanistan campaigns. Specifically, they will ask how Afghanistan became America's longest
war, and how we were able to invade and leave Iraq within the bookends of the
Afghan conflict. It is especially hard
to understand how we recovered power in Iraq after Abu Ghraib and a fractious
civil war. Although arguments over what
we accomplished in Iraq will endure for years, we regained enough power to
leave Iraq without a debate. We
subsequently attempted to carry the momentum of the Iraq counterinsurgency
campaign to Afghanistan in 2009, but still struggle to achieve something resembling
the ambiguous success in Iraq. The
disappointment in Afghanistan goes beyond a misapplication of what worked in
Iraq; the power equation between Iraq and Afghanistan was altogether different.

In
war, power wins. Individuals often
confuse military might with power, but in reality, there are many power factors
relevant to the outcome of war. Power
flows from diplomatic, political, and economic strength as well as strategic,
operational, and tactical effectiveness. Sound analysis of warfare will avoid focusing on any one of these
sources, and will instead examine relevant power, which accounts for the
interplay of power sources within the context of conditions and rivals in a
war.

In
both Iraq and Afghanistan, our relevant power ebbed and flowed due to changes
in our power sources. We did not have
adequate power to influence conditions in Iraq before 2007 due to limitations
across the power spectrum, from diplomacy to military tactics. Changes in
leadership and an effective counterinsurgency campaign adjusted our relevant
power to influence the human terrain, the adversary, and the diplomatic and
political environment. While many credit
the increase in U.S. troops as the key factor in the Iraq campaign, in reality
political settlements with the Sunni population, a counterproductive terror
campaign by Al Qaeda, and the decision by Iran to no longer incite Shia
resistance had greater impacts on stability and thus increased the coalition's
relevant power. As conditions changed in
Iraq, military coercion became relevant when we coupled it with an acceptable
political alternative. In contrast,
increasing economic pressures, tensions with Iran and Pakistan, and corruption
within the Karzai government have likely created insurmountable conditions for
a similar outcome in Afghanistan. Consequently, our military-centric Afghanistan "surge" lacked
the political component which boosted our relevant power in Iraq.

Additionally,
the Taliban affected the power equation in Afghanistan by using available time and
space, provided by our shift in focus to Iraq, to mitigate our
counterinsurgency campaign. The Taliban
attacked our strategy directly by weathering drone strikes in their Pakistan
safe havens, and adopting tactics with strategic payoff-namely IED, high
profile, and insider attacks. They understand the parameters of our relevant
power in Afghanistan, and to some degree, they learned how to leverage their
own power to counter ours.

To
understand the relevant power equation between Iraq and Afghanistan, we must
keep two things in mind. First, we
cannot assume political, economic, or military strength will translate from one
conflict to another or will even endure throughout a war. Because power fluctuates between and within
wars, the conditions that define a conflict provide the first measuring stick
for relevant power. Conditions in Iraq
were eventually ripe for our power to influence the political and security
situation. Not so in Afghanistan. Second, we cannot always compensate for deficiencies in one source of
power by increasing strength in another. War is a duel, and any ability to adjust or adapt depends on the
capability of our adversary to do the same. The Taliban exploited conditions to evolve into a strategically savvy
opponent, whereas Al Qaeda in Iraq diminished due to their own strategic
ineffectiveness. Our relevant power
depends on internal factors as well as the external ability of our opponent to
counter our strengths, exploit our weaknesses, and adapt and influence at a
faster rate.

Power
plays the leading role in war, but assessing power is not straightforward. Iraq and Afghanistan proved power in war is
neither broadly applicable nor enduring, it is relevant to changes in
conditions, our opponents, and ourselves. Good strategy must account for the give-and-take between power sources,
and their changing value within and between conflicts. It is far easier for strategists to measure
strength in isolation and assume it translates to power, but that shortcut does
not serve them well when preparing for war. Success in war requires an understanding of when and how to expend or
preserve power -- and when and how to end a war in order to retain future
freedom of action. The consequences for
misunderstanding relevant power could cause a nation with considerable military
might to lose a war by stubbornly pursuing an unrealistic end state,
significantly draining its power in the process. Avoiding that outcome requires asking two
simple questions. When told our nation
inherently possesses power due to military, political and economic strength,
our military strategists and the policymakers they serve should ask,
"power to do what ... to whom?"

Colonel
Jason Brown is an active duty Air Force officer attending the Air War College.
He is a graduate of the Marine Corps School of Advanced Warfighting. He commanded the 13th Intelligence Squadron
and has deployed to multiple locations including Iraq and Afghanistan. The conclusions and opinions expressed are
those of the author. They do not reflect the official position of the U.S. government, Department of Defense, the United States Air Force, or Air
University.