Cassidy’s Count: More Alarm Bells for Obama

Since Friday evening, when I reported that the national race was virtually tied, and that President Obama’s firewall in the electoral college was just about holding up, there have been a couple of significant developments. Mitt Romney has sustained his momentum in the national polls, and in the pivotal state of Ohio he appears to have made up more ground. I don’t think either of these things alters the basic picture I presented in my previous post, but clearly they represent more alarm bells for Democrats. I’ll deal briefly with each in turn:

National Polls: Sunday’s poll of likely voters from NBC News/Wall Street Journal, which showed the two candidates tied at forty-seven per cent each, has generated a lot of headlines. As far as I am concerned, it was merely catching up with other polls, which, averaged out, have shown the race to be pretty even for about a week now. The last NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll had Obama leading by three points, but that survey was carried out before the first debate, which means it is pretty meaningless. The new poll merely confirms what we already know: what happened in Denver shifted the electoral dynamics in a fundamental way.

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