Ben and the Bunker Busters - UPDATED 10/16/12

NOTE - The "Dark of the moon" for October has passed uneventfully, with no new outbreak of war in the Middle East. Instead a skirmish was fought in cyberspace when the US and others accused Iran of launching a major cyber attack at the Gulf States, US bases and US Banks in reprisal for tightening of sanctions. Now the action will move to the presidential debates...but the NEXT dark of the moon will occur after the election. Was Israel waiting to see who they will be dealing with? I guess we'll have to wait and see as well.


For many years now I have monitored the slowly rising tension between Israel and Iran and predicted that a hard line Israeli Prime Minister would eventually "pull it" and unleash his U.S. made air force on Iran. The "attack" to disable Iran's emerging nuclear program has been percolating for years, rehearsed by the IDF and seen as "imminent" for months now. People learn of US or British carrier movements and start writing about "massive" US naval buildups, when in fact there is nothing more going on that normal carrier rotation. (I check each time I run across one of these articles.) But the one thing that does get my war radar up and running is good old Benjamin Netanyahu appearing on US TV to remind us all of the threat Iran poses to... well, to Israel. Face it, Iran has no missile that can reach US shores.
Bunker Buster Ben came out in force on recent Sunday morning news talk shows to make his case like a football coach trying to rally his linemen for a pass rush in sudden death overtime. He basically stated that Iran was nearly at the goalpost, and "you can't let them go that last 20 yards" to a point where they would have enough enriched uranium to make a bomb. In Ben's mind, the decades old problem of Israel has a terrifying "one bomb solution" for Iran. That's all it would take, so you can see where Netanyahu is coming from with his fear over an Iranian bomb.
Israel's response is to get their with its air force first, though I have no idea how they think they can inhibit such a widely hidden and distributed enrichment program. It's not like Iran has gathered its entire nuclear effort under one ten foot thick concrete bunker. Any air strike that would have even the slightest hope of affecting the Iranian timetable for nuclear development would have to be massive and sustained--for weeks. Anything else, a quick in an out by the Israeli air force, would be militarily stupid and completely ineffective.

Yet recent news has rumored that a quick strike, lasting perhaps no more than 2 hours, may be in the option mill "prior to the Nov 6 election." It is presumed that this will be a joint US/Israel operation, though other "analysts" feel Israel may go it alone. Yet does Israel have what it would take to mount such a campaign, all while hundreds of lethal medium range ballistic missiles are raining down on Haifa and Jerusalem in reprisal? Of course not--hence we get Bunker Buster Ben hoping to rally support here in the US for his long planned war with Iran. What Ben really wants, and needs, is the US Navy and Air Force to second his intended madness.
Beyond inhibiting Iran's enrichment program, such an attack would have ramifications on multiple political fronts. First, it would demonstrate to Iran that the US is dead serious about its statements concerning a nuclear option for that country. It would also loudly voice the same to Russia and China, and thirdly, it would serve to defang Romney, who has trumpeted that Obama is too soft on Iran and foreign policy issues in general. Some say that Obama would get a boost after his lackluster first debate saw his poll numbers slip. It's now a horse race with Romney.

If an attack is launched, watch the dates for the dark of the moon, right around Oct 14-16, with late Sunday the 14th being a prime date for the launch, leaving the pitch black skies of Monday the 15th at the dark of the moon for follow up strikes. One might expect to see several warning signs if this attack were actually planned: the movement of special forces planes and teams to the Middle East (often deployed as target pathfinders, but more so to extricate US nationals in trouble spots after the attack). This has already been reported. Watch activity at US bases like Whiteman AFB, home to our only B-2 Stealth Bomber squadrons. The really big earth penetrating bombs would have to be carried by a bomber, not a naval plane. Take note of activity at Diego Garcia in the Indian Ocean. Yes, watch the carriers. We currently have an interesting "overlap" relief in progress, with CV Enterprise on its very last deployment in the Arabian Sea being joined by CV Eisenhower there. Some have even suggested that a "False Flag" incident would be staged involving Enterprise as a pretext to the attack.

But one other note... If I know this, and if it is all over the Internet, then you can be certain Iran's military professionals know it as well. A high level commander of the Revolutionary Guards went on the air recently too, and said there would be "nothing left of Israel" if Ben lets his Bunker Busters fly in October, November or any other month. Brother, if ever there was a war that was waiting to happen, this one is primed and ready to go. And if Obama think he can sanction a quick limited strike against Iran without major consequences, then he is seriously wrong. Iran has so many options for reprisal that I hate to count them.
I wrote some fiction about it once upon a time, and here is a small slice that depicts what might happen if Ben finally gets his pass rush....
... An uneasy calm settled over the Gulf region, but tensions ratcheted high as radar crews squinted at their screens in nervous anticipation. Missiles in Iran were fueling at a frantic place, and mobile launchers emerged from their hiding bunkers to prepare their deadly game of shoot and scoot. But for the moment, however, the missiles stayed on their launch pads.

The hours ticked by, and tensions slowly subsided. One by one the Iranian air force planes in the initial scramble defense waves were running low on fuel and returning to their bases. Too few rose to replace them, as the initial wave had sent more than 80% of the inventory aloft. In spite of recent drills, only 75 of the 125 aging F-4 Phantoms and F-5 Tigers were air worthy. Of these 60 had flown in the first alert wave, leaving fifteen to take their place in the hot late afternoon sun. There were still five old F-14 Tomcats and ten Mig 29s available as well.

All across the region radars were humming as they scoured the skies for any sign of incoming enemy aircraft. Yet nothing was seen. Then, a few minutes before dusk, the newly installed Syrian early warning radar facility atop Lebanon's highest peak at Mount Sannine, went dark. There were crucial minutes of confusion at Syrian Air Defense Command before they realized the facility had been destroyed by a missile. The source was not discovered, but the outpost had been hit by an Israeli Popeye Turbo cruise missile launched from a submarine in the Eastern Med. Other missiles were already on their way to strike similar early warning outposts in Iran, this time launched by Israeli submarines in the Persian Gulf. The Netanyahu government, always ready to exploit any opportunity, had chosen this delicate moment to launch their long planned air strike against suspected Iranian nuclear facilities.

Even as the first alert wave of Iranian aircraft were landing for refueling, two Israeli air groups flying F-15 I and F-16 I fighters were being led by radar suppressing G-550 Suter and NCCT aircraft on a mission targeting uranium enrichment facilities in Qom and Natanz, as well as the heavy water reactor at Arak, the new facility at Bushehr, and the gas storage complex at Esfahan. The Israeli attack would look like a joint operation with the Americans, though Israeli diplomats had not revealed their intended strike date to politicos in Washington until the planes were well on their way. It was a necessary formality, for the Americans had supplied most of the KC-707 air refueling tankers and liberal allotments of missiles and bunker busting bombs that would be used in the attack.

 The strike groups began their run up the Mediterranean coast, then turned East, flying low over Syria. With massive jamming and software attacks unleashed by the IDF, Syrian Air defense response was simply too slow. The few anti aircraft missile batteries that managed to acquire Israeli targets were quickly extinguished from the grid as their radars fell prey to the AIM “Harm” anti-radar missiles. The strike groups were out of Syrian airspace in a flash, but even though the Iranians had been forewarned, there was little their own air defense could do as well.

The Israeli F-15 top cover swept aside the few remaining Iranian aircraft aloft to contest their approach, and the F-16s went to work. As night fell on a moonless night in October, targets would soon begin lighting up the deepening dusk, their heavy laser and GPS guided ordinance pummeling the industrial heart of the Iranian nuclear program, at least those facilities that were known.

      Unable to prevent the attack, or hinder it an any way, the Iranians had a precious few minutes to consider reprisals. They could order a massive retaliatory strike, in keeping with the rhetoric of their own government in recent months, and “severely punish any aggressor who would dare to threaten or strike the Iranian homeland.” But the Israelis were already finding and extinguishing a good number of the fixed Shahab missile sites. If they were to launch a counterattack, it had to be soon. Alternatively, they could stand down, ride out the storm, then take the role of the aggrieved victim and raise hell in the UN and every other international forum available. Their third option was to take the conflict "international" and make the world suffer the consequences. The Straits of Hormuz and the oil rich Sheikdoms to the south were the most inviting and easily ignited targets a ballistic missile commander might ever have.

The Iranians had made up their minds.

At a little after 22:00 hours, Gulf time, the first wave of missiles left their launch pads. The Israelis had found, and destroyed, sixteen launching sites, those deemed most likely to harbor weapons packages that might be aimed at Israel. But the Iranian response had a far greater scope, taking in the full range of the target rich southern shores of the Persian Gulf. The oil storage bunkers and terminals at Al Fujairah, the world's third largest bunkering center, were among the many targets they had decided to strike, and the list was long. Missiles were falling at the export terminals of Ras Tanura,  Ras al-Ju'aymah and the industrial city of Al Jubayl in Saudi Arabia. The American facilities in Qatar were struck that night as well, along with the ports at Abu Dhabi, and a host of other key facilities along the coast. If the Iranians could not have atomic energy, the world would not have petroleum. The equation was quite simple and it would mark the end of modern life as so many had lived it for the last hundred years.

Assad al Arif watched, amazed from his makeshift sasha, a palm frond fishing canoe bobbing at the end of its mooring rope a few miles south of the main oil storage facilities at Al Fujairah. He had been out all day, fishing as his father and grandfather before him, and now was simply tending and mending his nets in the quiet evening. Then the horizon to the north exploded in fury and red orange flame. An Iranian Shahab had struck the ENOC oil terminals there, igniting an inferno of burning oil and gas as one storage tank after another was engulfed in the holocaust of fire.

From far more plush accommodations in the city itself, the ruler of Fujairah, His Highness Sheikh Hamad bin Mohammed Al Sharqi, and His Excellency Sheikh Hamad bin Saif Al Sharqi, his deputy, watched in horror as the oil storage bunkers burned out of control. Millions of barrels of oil would be consumed in a conflagration that sent massive clouds of broiling smoke aloft to further char the black night settling over the Straits of Hormuz.

“And so it begins,” said one Sheikh to another. The long feared “incident” in the Persian Gulf had finally ignited the well oiled kindling there, and the fires were burning.

“No my friend,” said the able deputy to his Highness.  “And so it ends...”

Think gas prices are high now? Think again.