We need to study who switches sides in insurgencies, and how and why they do

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Steve
Biddle, a smart guy, writes with some of his homeys in International Security in a study of the surge in Iraq that we need to better
understand how and why some insurgents change sides. "Our findings emphasize
the Sunni realignment's importance, yet realignment's role in civil warfare is
largely unstudied, as are its causes and consequences."

Some
good dissertation theses are to be found in following up that hint. Maybe a
comparative study of who and why changed sides in several civil wars. I think
especially the timing would be interesting: Is there typically a phase of the
war that provokes side-changing? (My cynical guess is: Yes there is, and it is
when the outlines of the ending start becoming evident. Biddle, by the way, is moving camp to
George Washington University. I hope they understand over there what a big deal
it is for them to get him. He is so astute that when I disagree with him, my
first impulse is to retrace my steps and try to see where I went off
track.) 

Here is
Joel Wing's critique of the article itself.

Meanwhile,
one night in August I dreamed that Moqtada al-Sadr went into exile in South
Africa. No idea why I chose that for him. Probably too much lobster for my
dinner whilst watching Olympics.