New Zealand to take the World Twenty20

Chiefly responsible for making following political party conference coverage less irritating than being a cricket fan
© PA Photos



As one of the odder English international summers continues to peter out in an amorphous sludge of tediously one-sided limited-overs matches, the world is turning its attention to the fourth incarnation of the ICC World Twenty20. Meanwhile, the numbingly irritating Pietersen saga continues to rumble on like the indigestible chimichanga of idiocy that it is, with ill-timed autobiographies and ill-conceived leaks further muddying the swamp. For England fans, therefore, the advent of a major tournament will be both welcome respite from the internecine bickering in the England camp, and a rather less welcome reminder of the cost of that bickering.

The absence of Pietersen might make for a more harmonious hotel, but it significantly diminishes England’s chances of retaining their crown. They are unlikely to win the tournament. Fortunately for England, all of the other teams are also unlikely to win the tournament. Some are more unlikely than others, and one of the 12 sides will overcome that unlikelihood to triumph. The bookmakers have India as favourites, at around 9-2, with six other teams priced between 5-1 and 7-1, suggesting that, as tends to be the case in the World Twenty20, the trophy could end up almost anywhere after the 20-day festival of skied catches, slower balls, even slower balls, thwacks, dab, hoicks, slaps, clobs, and excessive use of the word “unbelievable”.

Afghanistan are the outsiders at 1000-1 – only twice as unlikely to triumph as England were at their lowest ebb of the Headingley Test of 1981, so we should not entirely rule them out from completing potentially the greatest story in sport.

International T20 remains relatively scarce, so the pre-tournament form guide is minimal and largely irrelevant. Whether this makes the World T20 entertainingly unpredictable or meaninglessly random, or a bit of both, is down to the opinions and proclivities of each viewer. Personally, as a Test match devotee, I have enjoyed the international tournaments far more than any other T20 cricket, because the schedule is concise enough to create some of the tournament intensity so often wilfully absent from 50-over World Cups, and the teams have identity – Chris Gayle can choose whether to play for the Royal Challengers Bangalore, the Matabeleland Tuskers, Sydney Thunder, the Vladivostok Vipers, the Beijing Nincompoops, the Lillehammer Libidos, the Nuremburg Nutcases, the New York Yankees, the Rio de Janeiro Ethels, or any of their local franchise rivals, but West Indies are his only option for the World T20.

The Official Confectionery Stall Prediction: New Zealand to win. I arrived at this conclusion not because I think New Zealand will win (although they have enough potent hitters to reach the semi-final shootout), but by drawing lots from a hat. It seemed appropriate. It will probably be won by a team that (a) finds a streak of form; (b) hits lots of sixes; (c) contains either Shahid Afridi or someone a bit like Shahid Afridi; and (d) gets lucky.