The Fed and the Job Numbers: The Fed Looks at the Establishment Survey

Catherine Rampell had an interesting discussion of the Fed's likely course of action at its September meeting based on the July numbers. While the piece acknowledged the July jobs number from the establishment survey was somewhat better than expected, it concludes that the Fed is likely to move based on the weakness of the data from the household survey.

I'd have to disagree with that assessment. The household survey is far more erratic than the establishment survey. For example, it shows a j...