Tail risk
Scientists and activists alike have been lamenting about global warming and warning the general public about the impending doom (1). This is fair, for sure - no sane animal would burn fossil fuels uncontrollably so as to choke everybody to death. What is not so clear is the prioritization of the risks faced by humans. Research interests of scientists appear to be highly correlated with the ability to publish papers when data is available in plenty.
However, it is important to put this in perspective. Take a little known (or studied) risk for example – the risk of a magnetic polarity change for the Earth. Magnetism trapped in ancient pottery shows that over the past 4,000 years, the magnetic field has weakened by more than 50%. This past century, the strength has dropped by 5% (2) . At this rate, the field might disappear in the next few hundred or thousand years. Another warning sign of an imminent flip has come recently from satellite measurements of the Earth's magnetic field. The implications of a polarity switch can only be imagined – as it is currently “not funded,” to be researched. Another area, that is considered less “sexy,” compared to ideas of imminent death by green house gases ( that includes Methane from cows), is death by an approaching meteor (3). Of course, one can never underestimate the mighty human with his stockpiles of nuclear weapons and accumulating nuclear waste from producing “clean energy,” to do something irrational that will make such risks moot.
Sure, climate change is a concern – but the probability of catastrophic events, that will make sea level changes, massive hurricanes and disappearing ice cover, child’s play are tangible enough to make the tactical concerns less relevant. Tenure and publications, however, follow fashionable research.
(1) Climate concerns. Published: Thursday, July 26, 2012 - 15:35 in Earth & Climate. Source: Harvard University.
(2) http://www.guardian.co.uk/science/story/0,3605,748510,00.html.
(3) Asteroid With Chance of Hitting Earth in 2029 Now Being Watched 'Very Carefully'. http://www.space.com/622-asteroid-cha...
