The best eagerly awaited series of the last two years

Vernon Philander: George Lohmann in track pants
© Getty Images



One of England’s most eagerly awaited Test series of recent times launches into action today. Even the weather, which has been so single-mindedly sogging the entire summer, seems to want to watch Strauss’ England take on Smith’s South Africa. At stake: the pinnacle of the Test match rankings, and, in this Jubilee summer, a piggyback on the Queen for the winning captain (subject to Her Majesty passing a fitness test on a troublesome back injury that dates back to Mike Gatting’s days as England captain).

Admittedly most of this eager awaiting has been carried out by hardcore cricket fans. England’s wider sporting attention has been engaged with (a) the imminent Olympics, (b) complaining about the imminent Olympics, and (c) counter-complaining about the amount of complaining about the imminent Olympics. And probably also by (d) nerve-jangling rumours of the potential transfer of a left-back, or maybe even a defensive midfielder, between two second-tier football clubs. Nevertheless, in the cricket-conscious parts of the country, anticipation has been building throughout the summer, which has thus far registered barely a tremor on the cricketing Richter scale.

I expect this eagerly awaited Test series to prove rather better than the last eagerly awaited Test series in England, way back in the murky depths of history, in 2011. That showdown ended up in an abject drubbing for India, who were ageing, weakened by a couple of crucial injuries, and riding the rogue grandmother of emotional come-downs after their World Cup high. England are unlikely to have such compliant opposition this time.

The key battlegrounds

1. Swing bowling

England’s batting has been almost unremittingly exceptional since shortly after the start of the 2010-11 Ashes. It remitted fairly spectacularly in the face of some high-class tweakery against Pakistan in the UAE and in the first Test in Sri Lanka, but at home it has been historically dominant, crunching through records like a recently divorced crocodile through his ex-wife’s CD collection.

What England’s batting has not encountered in that time, however, is consistent top-quality swing bowling, since the naughtiness-besmirched 2010 series against Pakistan. Then, they collectively failed, but were bailed out by Pakistan counter-failing even more aggressively in the face of England’s own excellent swing contingent. Steyn and Philander will test whether the weaknesses that Amir and Asif exposed before their little “judicial kerfuffle” have been properly rectified, or merely camouflaged.

2. Swing bowling

South Africa’s batting contains four of the world’s top ten batsmen. No other country has more than one player in the top ten. However, in the three matches they have lost in the past two years – each when leading 1-0 in a series – vulnerability to swing has been influential, as Welegedara, Cummins, Zaheer and Sreesanth all made decisive inroads into their top order. Anderson is now a significantly superior bowler to the one who performed reasonably against them in 2008 and 2009-10, Broad has taken 54 wickets at 18 in his last ten Tests, and Bresnan has only ever had one actively ineffective Test match with the ball.

3. Dale Steyn’s body

It has been pointed out that Dale Steyn’s otherwise unimpeachable Test career has one significant blip – his performances against England. He averages 34 in eight Tests against England, compared with an overall career average of 23. But three of those matches were in his raw debut series in 2004-05, one was on a Lord’s featherbed in 2008, and one was his first match back after injury in 2009-10. In the other three matches (three of his most recent four against England), he has taken 20 wickets at an average of 22. England were thrashed in two of those games, and clung on by their fingertips in the other. If he remains fit and plays a complete series against England for the first time in four attempts, England will have to bat exceptionally well to win it.

4. Vernon Philander’s ability to keep thinking he is bowling in the 19th century.

Fifty-one wickets at 14 in seven Tests. Those are scarcely believable statistics in 2012. Rumours suggest that Philander summons the ghost of George Lohmann through a fairground medium before each Test he plays. South Africa will be hoping that the long-dead 1890s Surrey-and-England phenomenon continues his advisory role as personal bowling coach for the Proteas’ brilliant new blitztrundler.

5. Graeme Smith’s cover drive

Smith is a very good batsman. Perhaps in time he will be judged to have been a great batsman. He has been an admirable leader, and seems to be a perfectly decent human being. But with bat in hand he is an aesthetic abomination. If he starts chunk-slamming England’s bowlers through extra cover, the images burned into the England players’ retinas could adversely affect the home team when their turn comes to bat.