Fun With Statistics!
When is Weather Really "Climate"?Answer: when the weather is warm.
Over at Statistician to the Stars, we find some commentary on a recent calculation that thirteen consecutive months of above-average temperatures has a 1 in 1.6 billion probability of occurring by chance. This figure was obtained by considering temperature anomalies (deviations of adjusted actual temperatures from the mean temperature for that month), classifying them as "above normal," "normal," and "below normal," and assigning probabilities of 1/3 to each group. Then taking ⅓^13 to calculate the probability of a run of 13 "above-normal" temperatures. This is a fairly simplistic model. It also suggests that 14 months ago, temperatures were normal or below. You will notice that 13 months is just over one year, which hardly qualifies as climate and may not even qualify as 13 independent measurements.
Dr. Briggs writes »
Over at Statistician to the Stars, we find some commentary on a recent calculation that thirteen consecutive months of above-average temperatures has a 1 in 1.6 billion probability of occurring by chance. This figure was obtained by considering temperature anomalies (deviations of adjusted actual temperatures from the mean temperature for that month), classifying them as "above normal," "normal," and "below normal," and assigning probabilities of 1/3 to each group. Then taking ⅓^13 to calculate the probability of a run of 13 "above-normal" temperatures. This is a fairly simplistic model. It also suggests that 14 months ago, temperatures were normal or below. You will notice that 13 months is just over one year, which hardly qualifies as climate and may not even qualify as 13 independent measurements.
Dr. Briggs writes »
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