The Gap in the Curtain

…is the title of a little-known John Buchan novel in which several powerful or influential Englishmen are allowed, by a sort of magic,  to glimpse a copy of ‘The Times’ of a year hence.

Well, it doesn’t actually need magic to see into the future. Just a bit of experience and an unwillingness to follow the crowd. From the man who (alone) told you that the Tories wouldn’t win the 2010 general election, here are some more examples of prophetic ability. An insistent correspondent upbraids me for not writing at length about ‘House of Lords Reform’.

I have two reasons for not rushing to do so (though no doubt I will get round to it)


The first is explained in these two column items from days, weeks, months and years gone by, which I remember, even if nobody else does:
25th September 2011:
‘But the biggest fake of all will be the stage-managed split between the two, which I predict will take place by the spring of 2014.There will be some pretext or other - probably spending cuts. The idea will be to make the Liberals look like principled Leftists and the Tories look like principled conservatives. The media will, as usual, play along.
The Liberals will then noisily leave the Coalition but quietly agree to maintain a minority Tory Government on the basis of 'confidence and supply'.
Mr Cameron will then find ministerial jobs for some of his friends. Mr Clegg may possibly go off to the European Commission - a seat falls vacant in 2014.
If he does, I suspect Vince Cable will become leader, a change worth many votes to his party. The Tories will try and fail to get a few 'Right-wing' measures through Parliament.
And at the 2015 Election, voters will be asked to choose between Liberal Conservative, Liberal Democrat or Liberal Labour candidates, pretending to disagree with each other.
The Liberal Democrats will then form a coalition with whoever gets most seats. And your wishes, hopes and fears will continue to be ignored.’

AND 4th March 2012

‘HAVE you noticed how the Tories and the Liberal Democrats are trying to pretend they hate each other? Like almost everything in public life these days, it's a fake. But both parties are worried that their collaboration has lost them voters. So watch out for a completely made-up row between them, probably over Lords reform, followed by a Lib Dem 'walkout' from the Coalition. Nick Clegg will then go off to be a Euro Commissioner, a post that falls vacant in 2014. Vince Cable will probably take over his party.

Thanks to the creepy Fixed Term Parliament Act, which passed almost in silence, this walkout will not and cannot trigger a General Election. The new law means that the sort of no-confidence vote that brought down Jim Callaghan in 1979 can never happen again, a grave blow to our freedom. So Mr Cameron will be able to stay at Downing Street at the head of a minority Tory Government. The two parties will pelt each other with rhetorical mud and slime, the Tories will table all kinds of Right-wing legislation they know will never get through, and David Cameron will buy off his key rebels with ministerial jobs vacated by Liberals. This pantomime could easily end in another Lib-Con coalition, or even a Lib-Lab coalition that will be exactly the same, but with different teeth and hair. But it will work only if you, the voters, are fooled by it.’

****

My other reason is that, though House of Lords reform is immensely important, the pass has long ago been sold. The destruction of the real House of Lords (and the fatal undermining of the foundations of the monarchy)  was achieved by Anthony Blair when William Hague was leader of the Tory Party. For a moment, it looked as if Mr Hague was going to fight this constitutional vandalism on principle, but then he had the rug pulled out from under him by  the then Lord Cranborne. The weird hybrid chamber which has resulted is unsustainable, and almost impossible to defend. And it’s noticeable that there hasn’t been a peep of principled opposition to an elected (i.e. wholly party-controlled) ‘Senate’ from the Tory Party, merely moans that it’s not a priority and they have other things to do (what are they?).

The Tories voted ,for the most part, for the Bill and so cannot easily vote against a similar proposal when it comes up again later. It was the guillotine they opposed, a purely tactical decision. The final breach will come, I think, when Lib Dems combine with Labour ( and some Tory rebels who will probably abstain) to prevent the planned boundary changes for the House of Commons. That will be the pretext for the final split., and is organically linked ( as some Lib Dems have already made clear) to the issue of an elected Lords.  This row has come earlier than expected, because Parliament has so little to do under a government whose main function is to be in office, and which is now a purposeless, drifting hulk manned by careerists without principle or aim.