NYT: Numerical Advantages in Troops, Air Power Are Behind Russia’s Gains

Russia Matters, 7/21/25

For a number of reasons, including Russia’s numerical advantages in troops and air power,1 “Russia’s summer offensive in Ukraine is gaining ground as its forces attack on multiple fronts,” according to The New York Times’ Ivan Nechepurenko and Constant Méheut. Russia gained more than 214 square miles of Ukrainian territory in June compared to 173 square miles in May, according to the data collected by Ukraine’s OSINT group Deep State and analyzed by the two NYT journalists.2 And Russia is not just seeking to capture more territory. “Its goal is to destroy Ukraine’s military potential, its army,” Valery Shiryaev, an independent Russian military analyst, was quoted as saying in the NYT article. According to the data collected by the Institute for Study of War and analyzed by  RM staff , Russia’s net territorial control in Ukraine, if only including gains made after the launch of the full-blown invasion in February 2022, increased from 44,229 square miles in May 2025 to 44,463 in June 2025. If one compares the monthly rate of  change in Russia’s control  of Ukraine’s territory in June 2025 (234 square miles) with the average monthly rates of change in such control in the five preceding months of this year (Period I, 130 square miles) and in the 18 months that had preceded June 2025 (Period II, 153 square miles), then one sees that the June 2025 rate is considerably higher than the average rate during either of these two periods.*“Mass attacks of Shaheds, an Iranian-designed drone now manufactured in Russia, appear to be overwhelming Ukraine’s beleaguered air defenses, with the drone hit rate reaching its highest levels since Moscow’s invasion,” Charles Clover and Christopher Miller report in the  Financial Times . “Ukrainian air force data suggests about 15% of the drones penetrated defenses on average between April and June—rising from just 5% in the previous three months,” these FT journalists report. “The success of the drones in recent months demonstrates how cheap mass can overwhelm even sophisticated and layered air defenses,” especially if the drones are modernized to enable them to fly higher, faster and further, according to the duo.“The Ukrainian system of power has transformed so much that the name of the prime minister is no longer as important as it once was. In the current system, only the president and his chief of staff really matter,” Konstantin Skorkin writes in reference to the recent cabinet reshuffle in Ukraine. “The latest reboot is generally being explained as a move by the head of the presidential administration, Andriy Yermak, to strengthen his position even further… As his relationship with Washington deteriorated, Yermak felt it was necessary to shore up his influence on domestic policy,” Skorkin explains in his commentary for Carnegie Politika. That Ukraine’s new prime minister, Yulia Svyrydenko, is a protégé of Yermak is something that Financial Times’ Miller also mentions in his analysis of the latest political developments in Ukraine. Miller focuses his analytical take on “anti-corruption raids on prominent Ukrainian figures and moves to favor loyalists in senior positions.” These actions “have led to accusations that President Volodymyr Zelenskyy’s government is sliding into authoritarianism,” Miller writes. “If the institutions meant to enforce checks and balances are turned into political tools, Ukraine risks losing the democratic core it fought to build after 2014,” Miller warns.