First Quarter Sales Stats Analysis

Chart courtesy of GalleyCat

Statistics for the first quarter of 2012 are in, as supplied by the Association of American Publishers from 1,189 reporting publishers and distribution outlets, with print sales slipping further as digital continues its steady takeover of the industry.





Leading the charge for both March and Year-To-Date was the Children's/Young Adult segment, with a total gain of 63.6% thus far in 2012 and +46.6% in March, helped in no small part by a 233% increase in ebooks in that category for the year, and +173.9% for March. Showing just how strong the C/YA sector is right now was the fact that it saw the only steady growth in print sales, with a +53.9% increase in hardcover sales for the year, while Adult Hardcover managed only a marginal 2.7% gain. All other print sales were down, with Religious titles even showing a loss of -1.8% for the year thus far.

Children/Young Adult (Total): +63.6% YTD / +46.6% in March
Children/Young Adult Hardbacks: +67% YTD ($187.7 million)
Children/Young Adult eBooks: +233% YTD ($64.3 million)
Adult Trade eBooks: +28.1% YTD / +33.2 in March
Adult Trade Paperbacks: -10.5% YTD / -11.6% in March
Adult Mass Market Paperback: -20.8% YTD
Total Adult Sales (Print & Digital): +1.8% YTD



A milestone was reached for eBooks as their total sales volume surpassed that of Adult Hardbacks, with $282.3 million for digital compared to $229.6 for print editions. Of course, these are all ebooks compared to just one category of print, but it clearly illustrates the growth that ebooks are seeing. When ebooks surpassed hardback sales on Amazon last year it was only a matter of months before those sales eclipsed paperbacks as well, so a precedent has been set. Only time will tell if that trend continues in the industry as a whole. And with Adult Paperback revenues declining in this first quarter to $299.8 million from last year's $335 million for the same time frame, it's not likely to take long for that to occur. Already ebooks account for nearly three times the revenue of Adult Mass Market Paperbacks, which saw a 20.8% drop from $124.8 million to $98.9 for the quarter.



All told, Adult print sales for Q1 came to $628.3 million Year-To-Date, while ebooks brought in nearly half as much at $282.3 million (excluding Children's/Young Adult titles).



Another milestone statistic was achieved for digital this quarter, with downloadable audio titles outselling physical audio sales for the first time, with digital sales of $25.0 million (+32.7%) compared to physical sales of $19.1 million (+3.4%). This almost certainly due to the rising use of a tablets and e-readers as audio devices as it has become increasingly easy to stream and download audio content.








Finally, all education segments fell except for University presses, which saw an overall increase of 3.6%, although this is not too surprising for end of term. Educational sales see their greatest gains in August and September, which is something like their holiday season.








While the digital transformation continues apace, we are no longer seeing the consistent three-figure gains that have been the norm for the past few years, although the gains for digital are still in the double digits, as are the losses for print. With consistent monthly drops of ten and twenty percent, it won't take long for print to shrink below the point of cost effective production, if it hasn't already for most titles.








Still, what this tells me is that we may be seeing the beginning of a crest approaching as digital adoption rates reach market saturation. Early adopter phase is long past, and the bandwagon stage is well under way. With one in four Americans now owning an electronic reading device of one form or another, the initial rapid ingestion of digital content is bound to slow as readers now must wade through their newly loaded bookshelves. For some, certainly, the newness will wear off, the initial excitement will fade, and the unique e-reading experience will become the norm as reading habits return to their pre-digital rate.








Or this may just be a post-holiday slump.



UPDATED 6-15-2012 3:42 PM to include additional statistics and analysis, along with the chart from GalleyCat.