Elon Returns to Being Elon

Elon Musk has apparently jumped back into his various businesses with both feet since his butthurt departure from his temporary government post. And in so doing, he is resurrecting his standard playbook. Virtually every play therein, in fact.

For example:

Just left the @Tesla design studio.

Most epic demo ever by end of year.

Ever.

— Elon Musk (@elonmusk) July 14, 2025

5 months???? I DON’T THINK I CAN WAIT THAT LONG!!!! I’m dying here!

The hype. About the future. That’s the Elon MO.

Which brings to mind some of Elon’s past totally awesome demos. Like the Solar Roof . . . that was not a functioning product at the demo, and has never been seen in the wild since–but which he used to con hundreds of millions of dollars out of the State of New York. Or the Hyperloop.

Since this latest is from the “design studio” I’m also expecting some Potemkin Village presentation of a concept, the realization of which will always be mañana.

He has to do this for the same reasons he did these things before 2018 or so: Tesla is really struggling, with sales dropping sharply around the world and the prospect of cash flow challenges are raising its ugly head. Part of the sales drop is sector-wide, as the popularity of EVs is plunging, but part of it is Tesla specific, due to Musk’s political forays alienating his traditional customer base, and the fact that all Tesla models are getting a little old in the tooth. (Another reason to hype the “epic demo”). Furthermore, the looming disappearance of the $7,500 EV tax credit, which Tesla has benefited from for years, will shift back the demand curve by that amount: Trump credibly said that this was the real reason for Musk’s meltdown. That’s a big demand drop on top of the drop attributable to consumer EV disenchantment.

So Elon has to keep the balloon afloat. In the past he’s done that with hype–which, admittedly found an accepting audience. He’s doing it again. Whether it will work again remains to be seen given that whereas fundamentals–notably massive subsidization and consumer optimism about EVs–worked in his favor before, they will not do so again.

His TL is full of hype about Grok. A week after Grok went Nazitard (and Erdotard). Never go Nazitard.

He’s also hyping his mission to Mars. You know, to save humanity.

Starship will take humanity to Mars
pic.twitter.com/VEVWmjwb2w

— Elon Musk (@elonmusk) July 13, 2025

I’ve always thought this was a ridiculous notion. I’m not alone.

I am not competent to judge, but some who are claim that the huge rocket that will go there–the one that keeps blowing up–can never be a reliable launch vehicle because of fundamental physical constraints. I’ll keep an open mind on this, but be cautious about projecting SpaceX’s previous remarkable achievements onto the SuperHeavy.

Another MO is taking money from one of his ventures to fund another, that is using his winners as piggy banks to support his cash sucks. The most notorious example of this was Tesla’s purchase of Solar City.

And here we go again: “SpaceX to invest $2 billion in Musk’s xAI startup.” And again: “Tesla to hold shareholder vote on whether to invest in xAI.”

Recall that X was folded into xAI. It is clear now that the X acquisition was not about free speech (although it did have that effect, at least compared to the old Twitter, and at least for a while), it was about getting massive input to train Grok. Never forget: if it’s free, you are the product.

And Musk is using X and AI not just as a source for LLM training: he is using it to hype his other ventures. And not primarily through his own TL. As a friend wrote to me: “And don’t forget using X to amplify his company with AI accounts (there are estimated to be 100s of millions of AI accounts) and silencing critics.” And it is definitely clear that the X algos are definitely not to create a true all-to-all experience, let a thousand flowers bloom free speech experience. Instead, they heavily favor and promote specific accounts and throttling most others, leaving most of us shouting into the X void.

Musk also just announced Grok for Government:

Announcing Grok for Government – a suite of products that make our frontier models available to United States Government customers

We are especially excited about two new partnerships for our US Government partners

1) a new contract from the US Department of Defense
2) our…

— xAI (@xai) July 14, 2025

What would the “cause” be (click on “Show more”)? Just think of all the grist for the Grok mill that this will provide. And think of all the commercially valuable information that will be gleaned. Hell, maybe xAI will start a hedge fund that will outperform Nancy Pelosi!

And, of course, he no longer has to play well with others (like Scott Bessent!): “Elon Musk is Back to Work and Burning Through Executives.”

Every one of the many headlines about Musk from the last few days is like something burped up out of the Memory Hole. Although the ostensible subject matter is different, the MO is the same.

And the essence of that MO is overpromising and underdelivering. I kick myself for letting my hopes stifle my experience when it came to DOGE. It won’t happen again.