“Did I say two weeks? Sorry, I meant two days,” or, the MOPs Going Down, Down, Down in a Burning Rign of Fire

Last Tuesday I saw an Iranian born former student at a conference. He asked me what I thought would happen. I responded “Trump will demand Iran immediately agree to dismantle all of its nuclear facilities under US supervision, and if they don’t agree immediately, he will hit Fordow with MOPs.” A couple of days later Trump’s press secretary announced that Trump would decide “within two weeks” whether to order the bombers into the air. At the time, I thought “within” was doing a lot of work, and that was clearly part of the deception operation, for the wheels were already in motion to launch the attack, and had been for weeks.

This operation featured ruses within ruses. Among them were leaks claiming B-2s were headed west towards a staging base in Guam, suggesting preparations were still underway and an attack was some ways off. In the event, the Spirits that dropped the bombs flew east from Whiteman AFB in Missouri.

NB: There were no real leaks about this operation.

Initial indications are that the strikes were overwhelmingly successful, and have demolished Fordow, the most secure of the Iranian sites.

If not, no biggie. We’ll just go back until the job is finished. Iran is defenseless against American and Israeli air power.

Multiple Massive Ordnance Penetrators were deployed against Fordow, as was widely understood to be necessary given the depth of the facility. But marvel at the precision required to put multiple bombs down the same hole

Iran is of course uttering blood curdling threats of retaliation. Yawn.

Mullahs right now be like pic.twitter.com/o0fUtv8c4o

— streetwiseprof (@streetwiseprof) June 22, 2025

As I said in a previous post (which had prompted my student’s question), their main real threat is to attempt to close the Straits of Hormuz. But as Trump made crystal clear in his statement last night, any retaliatory response by Iran will result in a massive US response that will make Operation Praying Mantis look like a pillow fight. The main threat would be from mines–so the US will take out every vessel capable of sowing them. The next threat would be from Silkworm antiship missiles. As if the US doesn’t know where every one is and is monitoring (via satellite and UAVs) every time one of the crew manning them so much as scratches his balls.

Note that OPM was conducted before precision munitions. Although the US Navy is smaller now, its productivity is far greater due to its arsenal of PGMs. OPM was also undertaken with considerable restraint. Gloves are off now.

And note that China won’t appreciate a cutoff of oil from the Gulf.

Another potential retaliation vector is terrorism. However, the dismantling of Iranian proxies has reduced this threat in the ME especially. My biggest concern in this regard is that Biden’s open borders policy let in God knows how many Iranian agents.

Which reminds me . . . the Iranians obviously knew the danger they faced when they dispatched teams to assassinate Trump.

The bedwetting epidemic in the US specifically and the west generally is something to behold.

The Iranians removed all the nuclear material before the bombing, so it was useless!!! Uhm, if they knew they couldn’t protect these materials 300 feet underground, they won’t be able to do so wherever they’ve moved them. And if they moved them, we watched them do it. Kicking the enriched uranium down the road will not alter the ultimate outcome.

This will just make Iran more intent on getting nukes!!! Uhm, they were pretty hell bent on it before, so added motivation is gilding the lily. Moreover, intent without capability is irrelevant. Iran spent decades and tens of billions to build the bomb, and they saw it go up in smoke in minutes. If they try to restart, it will go up in smoke again.

There’s no proof the ayatollah gave the final order to build a bomb!!!

I Don't Really Care Margaret, take 100.

She keeps trying to play gotcha & gets her head handed to her over and over again. https://t.co/jtL34Wb9Vs

— streetwiseprof (@streetwiseprof) June 22, 2025

Irrelevant. The issue was that they had to prove that they would not. Trump gave them ample opportunity to do so. They refused. That is more than sufficient to prove the requisite intent beyond a reasonable doubt.

I further note that divining intent is far less certain than evaluating capability. Intent without capability is far less dangerous than capability with unknown intent. (Although there is in fact little doubt about intent). Eliminate the capability and uncertainty about intent becomes irrelevant.

What has Iran ever done to us??? This is Israel’s fight!!!

Where the fuck have you people been the last 46 fucking years? Tell it to the Marines . . . whom Iranian proxies killed in the hundreds in Beirut. Tell it to the Americans who fought and died in Sadr City in Iraq. Or those killed by Iranian IEDs in Iraq and Afghanistan. I could go on (and on) but if I have to tell you this history you are hopeless and IDGAF about your opinion.

One fascinating thing is the muted international response–there has even been praise from some European quarters. The Saudis issued a statement that gives new meaning to the phrase crocodile tears. The Russians left their response to the narcoleptic drunk Dmitri Medvedev. China issued a boilerplate “international law blah blah blah we call on both sides to reach a ceasefire blah blah blah.”

A related fascinating thing is the fact that multiple Arab countries let Israel, and now the US, use their airspace with impunity and without a peep.

Yes there will be some volatility over the coming days. How much depends on how stupid the Iranians are. Past experience shows that they can pretty damned stupid. But they’ll be the ones who will pay the price for their stupidity. They keep finding out, but keep fucking around nonetheless. So be it.