The Drones Are Coming From Inside the House

The first new development in the Groundhog Day-esque Russo-Ukrainian War occurred Saturday, when Ukrainian operatives launched numerous FPV drones from within Russia to attack Russian air bases. Ukraine claims that 41 long range bombers and other large aircraft (e.g., an A-50 radar plane) were destroyed. The Russians admit some losses, but not so many.

As in war generally, and this war in particular, all assertions must be treated with deep skepticism. It is clear from video evidence, however, that multiple planes were hit at multiple airports.

What are the consequences?

Operationally they are modest, though material. Russia uses these rather antiquated and maintenance-hungry planes to launch cruise missiles at Ukraine. Many are pooh-poohing these losses because their utility vs. the US is highly limited, and because Russia relies on other means (drones and MiG-31s) for most of its strikes. But the fact that Russia has been shuttling these planes all over the country–from SIberia to the Kola Peninsula–evidently in an effort to make a Ukrainian strike difficult, and despite the wear and tear that puts on these temperamental beasts indicates that it considers them a useful military asset.

The biggest consequence is the demonstration that Russia has a huge internal security problem. These drones were assembled in Russia, and transported to their launch sites (again, in Russia) in semis contracted for by Ukrainian agents. No doubt the security apparatus dogs are fighting viciously under the carpet to attribute blame. Internecine warfare within the government, and especially among rival security agencies and officials will distract Putin and his minions from the front. Moreover, this will no doubt result in a substantial diversion of resources to maintaining internal security.

A horror movie trope is “the call is coming from inside the house.” Well, here the drones are coming from inside the house. That’s pretty scary.

Ironically, in this regard Russia’s massive size is a handicap. So much territory with so many targets to monitor. Not just military bases but refineries, railways, and other economic resources essential to the war effort. In a place so huge, hitting it where they ain’t is easy. They can’t be everywhere, because everywhere is immense.

A security state that cannot provide security has no legitimacy. It has lost its reason for being and the justification for its oppressive measures. But the typical response is to double down on the repression. It’s all they know how to do.

The US disclaims foreknowledge. Ukraine claims it did not tell the United States. I call bullshit. Zelensky knows Ukraine is on a short leash with Trump. Further, an operation that gestated for so long (18 months, supposedly) would almost certainly be sniffed out by US intel. Further, (a) we know (per the NYT) that the US is deeply embedded in Ukrainian targeting, and (b) the fact that the Russians have been shuttling these planes around means that US intelligence on their location on any given day would be vital to successful strikes.

The timing is fascinating for another reason. Trump has been trying to play nice with Putin to get him to the table, and to make concessions. Putin has responded with a smirking chimp routine, doubling down on his demands for Ukrainian concessions, refusing to make any of his own, and ramping up strikes on civilian targets.

My read is that Trump decided, OK, if that’s the way you are going to respond to my playing nice, I’ll let Ukraine undertake highly embarrassing (to Russia and Putin) strikes throughout the width and breadth of Russia. You want the war to continue Vova? You think you are winning? You think we will let you win?

Think again, bitch.

It is unlikely that a strike so long in the making just became feasible Saturday. Instead, Putin’s intransigence and smirking arrogance exhausted Trump’s patience and he greenlighted an operation that had been held in abeyance.

On the same day as the drone strikes on the bases, two bridges were (according to the Russians) blown up right when trains were underneath. In what I consider a case of the US feeding Putin his own medicine, Rubio and Vance expressed their condolences. Awww. We’re soooo sorry about that, Vova.

It was actually sorry, not sorry. Get your mind right.

Whether this will materially affect the trajectory of the war is doubtful, given who Putin is. Both sides, but especially Putin, are locked into a sunk cost mindset: “I must have total victory to justify the waste of the last 3 years!” With Putin this is accentuated by the need to maintain the illusion of dominance necessary for a dictator, which would be damaged, perhaps fatally, by concessions.

It was this mindset that drove the combatants in WWI to perpetuate a pointless war. Neither side would give in, and a growing body count only made them more intent on waging the war to the bitter end. The war only ended when one side could no longer continue–and even then, elements within Germany wanted to continue.

Putin has been betting that side will be Ukraine, in part because of a potential withdrawal of US support. But his holding out for complete victory has likely convinced Trump, albeit reluctantly, to continue and perhaps increase US support, and to permit Ukraine to take actions that the US had heretofore prohibited.

The lesson being, that when you demand everything, you can end up with nothing. The tragedy is that so many more will have to die to get to that point.