The Science of Premonition
I have hesitated to write about this subject, which carries a stigma; yet some facts are difficult to ignore. If you continue reading, you'll see what I mean.
In his excellent investigative book, The Premonitions Bureau, Sam Knight explores the true story of a short-lived British government experiment from the 1960s that attempted to scientifically study precognition—the ability to foresee future events—and whether it could be harnessed to prevent disasters. The book treats premonitions seriously, examining the real cases of individuals who had eerily accurate forewarnings of tragedies. It raises the possibility that human intuition or unconscious sensing might tap into patterns or cues that precede disasters. The book's bottom line is that premonitions undeniably occur, but nobody knows when or to whom they will manifest, or why.
Premonitions You Have Heard About
One of the most famous premonitions is Abraham Lincoln's prediction of his assassination. Just three days before his death, he shared a dream with his friend and biographer, Ward Hill Lamon, in which he was killed. On the night he went to Ford's Theatre, Lincoln also spoke with his bodyguard, William H. Crook, about having the same dream for three consecutive nights. As he left the White House, he bid Crook farewell with a "Goodbye" instead of his usual "Good night."
Premonitions are numerous and well-documented. Therefore, there must be a reasonable explanation for them. I will propose a possible one, so keep reading.
Unhelpful Premonitions
Some premonitions have saved their recipients from death, such as the inexplicable urge not to board a plane that then crashed. However, when a premonition occurs years before the incident, there is no immediate connection to the event. Thus, the plot thickens: premonitions may come to you without your realizing it. Therefore, they are arguably completely useless; yet they may be more common than we think.
An obscure writer named Morgan Robertson had a premonition of the Titanic disaster without even realizing it. In 1898—more than 14 years before the Titanic sank—he published a book called Futility. The book focuses on an ocean liner, claimed to be unsinkable, that lacks enough lifeboats and sinks into the cold waters of the North Atlantic after colliding with an iceberg. The ship was named The Titan. No one could have derived a practical warning from this book 14 years later.
The Titanic story is eerily similar to my own experience, which explains my interest in seeking a plausible explanation for the premonition phenomenon. To avoid turning this article into a shameless promotion, I won't provide details about the book that got me thinking in depth about premonitions. It's enough to mention that I recently realized that a book I wrote 17 years before certain unusual and notable events occurred, described them in almost exact detail. At that time, I obviously didn't know those events would happen in real life. Like many others, the story germinated in my head for no particular reason. A coincidence? Maybe.
The facts and the science behind a possible explanation.
Fact One: Premonitions occur, sometimes with remarkable precision. This fact is indisputable.
Fact Two: Individuals experiencing premonitions cannot explain how they have received them.
Fact Three: Many premonitions are specific and personal. Are you familiar with that irrational feeling that suggests you shouldn't do something you initially planned to do?
A well-known example is that of Edward and Pamelia Bowen, a well-off couple from Newton, Mass., who narrowly escaped tragedy in 1915 when they canceled their booking on the RMS Lusitania due to Edward's growing unease. Despite needing to travel to London for important business, Edward acted on a strong premonition that something terrible would happen to the ship. His instincts proved correct. On May 7, the Lusitania was torpedoed by a German U-boat, killing 1,198 people. The Bowens' last-minute decision saved their lives.
Fact Four: People who report credible premonitions have no personal interest in the story.
A well-documented example is that of , an office worker in Cincinnati, who, in May 1979, began experiencing vivid, recurring dreams of a horrific airplane crash involving a large jetliner taking off and then exploding. Troubled by the dreams' consistency and intensity, he contacted the FAA, describing the aircraft as an American Airlines DC-10. Just days later, on May 25, American Airlines Flight 191 crashed shortly after takeoff from Chicago O'Hare, killing all 273 people aboard—the deadliest aviation accident in U.S. history at the time. The eerie accuracy of Booth's visions made this case one of the most compelling and widely discussed examples of a possible premonition.
While a healthy dose of skepticism about the existence and meaning of premonitions is warranted, the documented examples of such occurrences are too numerous to ignore. Therefore, what scientific explanation can we suggest for this phenomenon?
The Future Is Here
The science is accessible to everyone who wants to learn a little about quantum mechanics. Yakir Aharonov, a physicist best known for the Aharonov-Bohm effect, has also contributed foundational ideas about time in quantum mechanics. One of his more philosophically profound theories involves a time-symmetric or two-state vector formalism (TSVF), which challenges the traditional, linear, and forward-only notion of time. Aharonov proposes that the quantum state of a system is determined not only by its past (initial conditions) but also by its future (final conditions). In other words, the present state is influenced by both past and future boundary conditions.
In Aharonov's view, the present is not an isolated moment moving through time but rather a bridge influenced by both what has been and what will be. This challenges the linear progression of time as we typically experience it. Since the future contributes to defining the present state (in TSVF), this implies that the future already exists. It suggests a block universe perspective, where the past, present, and future are all equally real.
Now, here's my theory that reconciles the undeniable existence of premonitions with quantum mechanics. Since, according to Yakir Ahronov, both the present and the future already exist, and the future influences the present, I propose that when an individual finds himself in a state of heightened perceptivity—often occurring during certain stages of sleep, hypnosis, or under the influence of drugs, high fever, and other altered states—details of future events "leak" into his cognition by an unknown mechanism. This would explain how different people without specific abilities or common traits experience isolated premonition events.
Why may "altered states" play a role? Seers and medicine men in certain tribal societies are believed to offer valid predictions of future events while under the influence of hallucinogens. While such reports are solely anecdotal, they align with the scope of the theory proposed above. Moreover, many predictions, like Abraham Lincoln's and David Booth's, are revealed in a dream. This strongly suggests that premonitions are less frequent during regular waking hours.
Of course, my theory may be completely bonkers, but since facts are facts, I challenge you to present a better one.
