Is there a Half-Life for the Success Rates of AI Agents?

Toby Ord���s analysis suggests that an AI agent���s chance of success drops off exponentially the longer a task takes. Some agents perform better than others, but the overall pattern holds���and may be predictable for any individual agent:

This empirical regularity allows us to estimate thesuccess rate for an agent at different task lengths.And the fact that this model is a good fit for thedata is suggestive of the underlying causes of failureon longer tasks ��� that they involve increasingly largesets of subtasks where failing any one fails the task.

Is there a Half-Life for the Success Rates of AI Agents? | Toby Ord