Know What I Can Not Control.

When to adopt a new technology? When to be risky? When to stay safe?

It all ties to risk. 10 years after reading, and re-reading, Nassim Taleb (NNT) works, now I think I understand a bit more.

A Framework for Control

I should know what I can control, what falls in my circle of control. More importantly, I should know what I can not control.

This is echoed by most of the people I love and idolize: Hayek, NNT and Seneca. One of key ideas in stoicism is to deflect unnecessary distraction. To focus on what matters and leave what doesn’t.

What I didn’t know 12 years ago is that I should take this a step further:

To focus on what’s under my control, and leave what is not.

And what I didn’t know 10 years ago is that I should take this another step further:

To focus on what’s under my control, and render what’s not ineffective (Antifragile, NNT)

Same idea of Barbel Strategy by NNT and risk. An example in investing by NNT is to keep 90% of one’s investment in ultra secure funds and leave the rest of the 10% in highly speculative bets with unbounded upside (and downside). Either way the 10% goes, you’ll not be ruined. You’ll stay in your tranquility.

Another example in tech is use of technology and startups. I should always try and design systems that are ultra stable, use technologies, we as a team, know and confident about and leave 10% to try ultra new, ultra edge tech – experiment. Many would disagree but I think they would be the newbies. None of the people older (and more wiser) than me agree with me. You can see it in juniors that they get extra excited about every new technology out there without the slightest proof of its validity (Lindy Effect.)

This Barbel strategy doesn’t encourage being safe. It simply limits the risk of being wrong. I try to survive. I try to be wise doing that. I’m not chasing ultra growth. I’m chasing sustainable growth – whether this is in business or in personal matters.

Salam, peace.