The Electorate: A Ship Tossed by a Storm
Hmmm, which party will stay afloat in the stormy seas of the federal election?
We are on the stretch drive to the Canadian federal election. It will be our second election in two months after the late winter provincial election. Hopefully voter turnout will be better this time than the dismal figures recorded for the Ontario election.
The federal election polls have shown a remarkable turnaround since earlier in the year when the Conservatives were far ahead. The resignation of Justin Trudeau, and the party’s choice of Mark Carney to replace him, have brought the Liberals back from the dead. They rebounded to a 6% lead in the polls although the race has tightened again in recent days.
What does this dramatic swing in the polls tell us?
Insight # 1: Canadians were pissed off at Justin Trudeau more so than at the Liberal Party itself. The Liberals clearly made the right choice in Carney. He does not have Trudeau’s innate charisma. But he presents an air of calm authority which seems to resonate with the electorate in the current environment.
Insight #2: The electorate was never particularly taken with Pierre Poilievre. He was the default choice when the options were Trudeau or Poilievre. But now that Carney is the alternative, Poilievre is losing traction.
What does Poilievre’s tumbling support tell us?
Insight #1: Poilievre’s crusty, full attack mode campaign style has backfired. He has a likability issue which his campaign manager is desperately trying to remedy. Poilievre’s wife and children are now on the campaign circuit with him. They appear at his side in all photo opps. The Conservatives are clearly hoping that presenting him as a family man will boost his image.
Insight #2: There is no loyalty in politics even within party lines. Doug Ford’s former campaign manager Kory Teneyoke has accused the federal Conservatives of campaign malpractice in blowing the large lead they had. Ford stuck his own dagger in by agreeing with Teneyoke and commenting that Sometimes the truth hurts.
The federal election is now primarily a two-party race. The NDP are headed for a dismal showing and are at risk of losing party status. What can we conclude from this?
Insight #1: In tumultuous times, the electorate wants a clear A or B choice. Secondary parties do not factor into the equation in a significant way.
Insight #2: Jagmeet Singh’s tenure as NDP leader is most probably coming to a close. There will be intense pressure on him to resign if the election goes the way it seems to be headed.
When it comes to elections, the electorate is very much a ship tossed by a storm. It is volatile and fickle capable of changing direction very quickly as new squalls appear. Party leaders have a very short expiry date on their tenure – a moment in the sun before the next storm washes them away into political obscurity.
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