Publishing Gatekeepers Are Not Fortune Tellers—They Get It Wrong All the Time
The Illusion of Predicting a Bestseller
I don’t care what anyone says—no publisher, big or small, can guarantee who will be a bestseller. They get it wrong all the time. Sometimes it’s instinct, sometimes it’s a lucky guess, and sometimes they just think they know—but the truth? Readers decide.
The publishing industry likes to act as if it has a crystal ball, as if acquisitions editors and agents possess some supernatural ability to determine what will sell and what won’t. But they don’t.
Sure, some editors and agents are experienced enough to recognize trends and patterns. Some can make educated guesses based on what’s currently selling. But educated guesses are not guarantees. And let’s be real—publishing history is full of massive miscalculations.
How Many Times Have Publishers Rejected Books That Became Bestsellers?
Let’s look at just a few examples of publishing’s biggest blunders:
• Zane Grey – Widely recognized for his influential Western novels, encountered early setbacks in the publishing industry. After facing multiple rejections, he took matters into his own hands and self-published his debut novel, Betty Zane, in 1903.
• Stephen King’s Carrie – Rejected 30 times before being picked up. The editor who finally took a chance on it turned out to be sitting on a gold mine.
• Louis L’Amour – Received 200 rejections before Bantam took a chance on him. He is now their best-selling author with 330 million sales.
• Jack London – Accumulated 600 rejections before publishing his first story.
James Joyce’s Dubliners – Rejected by 22 publishing houses before it was published.
• Joseph Heller’s Catch-22 – Faced 22 rejections before becoming a classic.
• Frank Herbert’s Dune – Rejected 23 times before becoming one of the best-selling science fiction novels.
• James Patterson’s The Thomas Berryman Number – Rejected 31 times before publication.
• Alex Haley’s Roots – Received 200 consecutive rejections before becoming a publishing sensation, selling 1.5 million copies in its first seven months.
• Madeleine L’Engle’s A Wrinkle in Time – Rejected 26 times before becoming a beloved classic.
• Margaret Mitchell’s Gone with the Wind – Rejected 38 times before winning the Pulitzer Prize.
• Anne Frank’s The Diary of a Young Girl – Rejected 15 times before becoming one of the most-read books worldwide.
• Dick Wimmer’s Irish Wine – Rejected 162 times over 25 years before publication.
• Kate DiCamillo – Received 473 rejection letters before her debut novel.
These are just a handful of examples. The point? Publishers and agents get it wrong constantly.
Great Books Get Passed Up While Mediocre Ones Get Greenlit
For every phenomenal book that gets rejected, there are mediocre ones that make it through. Ever read a traditionally published book and thought, How did this get past an editor?
Poorly written books still get deals—books with:
• Plot holes big enough to drive a truck through.
• Flat, one-dimensional characters.
• Poor pacing—too slow, too fast, or all over the place.
• A plot twist that makes no sense and leaves readers frustrated.
• Bloated word count, stretching a story that could be told in half the length.
Why? Because publishing is not always about quality. Sometimes, it’s about timing. Sometimes, it’s about connections. Sometimes, it’s about what they think might sell—even when they’re wrong.
Most Editors Don’t Even Read Your Whole Manuscript
Here’s a dirty little secret: many acquisitions editors don’t actually read your entire book before rejecting it.
In fact, a lot of times, they don’t read it at all.
At many publishing houses and literary agencies, the first line of defense isn’t the editor—it’s an intern or an assistant. That’s right. Your book might not even make it to the person who makes the decisions.
I know because I worked in the industry. I’ve been in literary agencies, talent agencies, television studios—you name it. And I can tell you that a shocking number of rejection letters are sent based on the first few chapters alone.
Sometimes, the manuscript never even gets opened.
Instead, a 20-something intern fresh out of college—with little to no experience—skims a few pages and makes the call. That’s who decides whether your years of hard work are worth passing up the chain.
Never Let Publishing Gatekeepers Destroy Your Confidence
Look, rejection sucks. There’s no sugarcoating that. But what’s worse is letting an industry that thrives on rejection make you feel like you’re not good enough.
Acquisitions editors and agents are not gods. They don’t determine your worth. They don’t get to define your success.
Some of them will try to act like they have all the answers. Some of them will throw you a fake “we wish you luck” while reveling in their supposed authority. Some will even get a kick out of tearing you down.
But guess what? They’re just people. And people—especially in publishing—are wrong all the time.
The Only Way to Fail Is to Quit
At the end of the day, the only real failure in publishing is giving up on yourself.
❌ Stephen King? Rejected.
❌ Andy Weir? Rejected.
❌ Agatha Christie? Rejected.
❌ Louis L’Amour? Rejected.
❌ Jack London? Rejected.
❌ James Joyce? Rejected.
❌ Joseph Heller? Rejected.
❌ Frank Herbert? Rejected.
❌ James Patterson? Rejected.
❌ Alex Haley? Rejected.
❌ Madeleine L’Engle? Rejected.
❌ Margaret Mitchell? Rejected.
❌ Anne Frank? Rejected.
❌ Dick Wimmer? Rejected.
❌ Kate DiCamillo? Rejected.
❌ Zane Grey? Rejected—had to self-publish his first novel before breaking through.
❌ Dean Koontz? Rejected—wrote over a dozen books before hitting bestseller status.
Rejection doesn’t mean your book isn’t good. It just means the wrong person read it—or worse, didn’t read it at all.
The publishing industry wants writers to believe that they hold all the power, that a rejection from them is the final word. But that’s a lie.
• Catherine Ryan Hyde – Endured 122 rejections before her first short story was published; her novel Pay It Forward became a bestseller and was adapted into a film.
• Shannon Hale – Received nine rejections before her novel The Goose Girl was published, leading to a successful writing career.
• Emily Henry – Authored several young adult novels before her adult romance Beach Read became a bestseller.
• Barbara Taylor Bradford – Worked as a journalist and wrote multiple books before her debut novel, A Woman of Substance, became a bestseller at age 46.
• Colleen Hoover – Self-published her early works before gaining widespread recognition and bestseller status.
• Freida McFadden – Balanced a medical career while writing multiple novels before achieving bestseller status.
• Dean Koontz – Wrote over a dozen science fiction novels before achieving bestseller status with Whispers.
Many Authors Write Dozens of Books Before Their First Bestseller
• There’s a myth in publishing that a debut novel must be a blockbuster for an author to be successful. While some writers do strike gold with their first book, that is the exception, not the rule. Many of the most celebrated authors wrote dozens—even hundreds—of books before one finally became a bestseller.
• Dean Koontz began his writing career in the late 1960s, authoring over a dozen science fiction novels. It wasn’t until 1980, with the publication of Whispers, that he achieved significant commercial success. Prior to this breakthrough, Koontz had written extensively under various pseudonyms, exploring different genres and honing his craft.
• L. Ron Hubbard wrote countless pulp fiction stories and novels before Dianetics in 1950 became a massive commercial success. Georges Simenon wrote over 200 books under pseudonyms before gaining widespread recognition with his Maigret detective series. Corín Tellado, one of the most prolific authors in history, published thousands of romance novels over decades, only some of which became bestsellers.
• For every author like Harper Lee (To Kill a Mockingbird) or Donna Tartt (The Secret History), whose debuts became instant bestsellers, there are far more who spent years—if not decades—writing book after book before they finally got their big break. Success in publishing is often a long game.
I know this firsthand. I entered my standalone novel in a contest with a Big 5 publisher, and they asked for the full manuscript. It was a moment of excitement—a chance for my book to be traditionally published. But after reviewing the full manuscript, they came back with a rejection, saying that while they enjoyed the premise and concept, they didn’t think my writing could stand nose-to-nose with their bestsellers.
And yet—many traditionally published authors never make the bestseller list until they’ve written a few books. Some never make it at all, and they still have long, thriving careers. A publisher’s opinion doesn’t determine your worth as a writer, and it certainly doesn’t predict your success.
The point? If your first book doesn’t become a bestseller, that doesn’t mean your career is over. Keep writing. Keep publishing. Many authors don’t hit their stride until their fifth, tenth, or even fiftieth book. The only way to fail is to quit.
Your Book Deserves a Shot—And You Do Too
So the next time an agent, editor, or intern rejects you—remember this:
✅ They are not the final say.
✅ They do not determine your worth.
✅ They do not get to decide whether your story matters.
The only way you lose in this industry is if you let them convince you to quit.
Embrace Where You Are Accepted
The world is full of readers waiting for books they haven’t found yet. Maybe yours is the one they’re looking for.
Not every path to success looks the same, and not every writer will land a massive deal with a Big 5 publisher. That doesn’t mean your work isn’t valuable or that your career won’t thrive. Sometimes, it’s about finding where you fit rather than forcing yourself into a mold that wasn’t made for you.
I didn’t land a huge deal with a traditional publisher—but I did secure a six-book contract with a small press. That’s a major achievement. It means my work resonated with the right people, the ones who believed in my vision and wanted to invest in my books. That’s what matters.
The truth is, there are many ways to get published. If one door closes, another is waiting to be opened.
Explore Different Publishing Paths
There is no one right way to become an author. Take the time to research different publishing paths and choose the one that aligns with your goals, resources, and creative control.
Traditional Publishing (Big 5 or Mid-Sized Presses)
• You work with a literary agent who pitches your book to publishers.
• If accepted, the publisher covers editing, design, and marketing.
• The process can take years, and competition is fierce.
Small Press Publishing
• Many small presses accept submissions without an agent.
• They offer traditional publishing benefits like editing and distribution but often have more flexibility and author input.
• Ideal for niche genres, debut authors, and those who want a more personal publishing experience.
📚 Independent & Hybrid Publishing
• Some publishers allow authors to invest in their books while still offering professional support.
• These options provide more creative control, though the financial risk is higher.
• A great fit for authors who want more involvement in marketing and production.
Self-Publishing
• The author controls everything: cover design, editing, marketing, and pricing.
• Platforms like Amazon KDP, IngramSpark, and Draft2Digital make publishing accessible.
• This route requires significant effort, but it also offers higher royalties and full creative control.
Find the Path That Works for You
The publishing industry isn’t one-size-fits-all. Some authors thrive in the traditional world, while others flourish in self-publishing. Some find success through small presses, and others take a hybrid approach.
No matter which path you choose, your books deserve to be out in the world. The key is to embrace the opportunities that accept you and your work rather than fixating on the doors that don’t open.
Success isn’t defined by how you publish—it’s defined by persistence, passion, and finding your readers.
Keep writing. Keep pushing. Prove them wrong.
I don’t care what anyone says—no publisher, big or small, can guarantee who will be a bestseller. They get it wrong all the time. Sometimes it’s instinct, sometimes it’s a lucky guess, and sometimes they just think they know—but the truth? Readers decide.
The publishing industry likes to act as if it has a crystal ball, as if acquisitions editors and agents possess some supernatural ability to determine what will sell and what won’t. But they don’t.
Sure, some editors and agents are experienced enough to recognize trends and patterns. Some can make educated guesses based on what’s currently selling. But educated guesses are not guarantees. And let’s be real—publishing history is full of massive miscalculations.
How Many Times Have Publishers Rejected Books That Became Bestsellers?
Let’s look at just a few examples of publishing’s biggest blunders:
• Zane Grey – Widely recognized for his influential Western novels, encountered early setbacks in the publishing industry. After facing multiple rejections, he took matters into his own hands and self-published his debut novel, Betty Zane, in 1903.
• Stephen King’s Carrie – Rejected 30 times before being picked up. The editor who finally took a chance on it turned out to be sitting on a gold mine.
• Louis L’Amour – Received 200 rejections before Bantam took a chance on him. He is now their best-selling author with 330 million sales.
• Jack London – Accumulated 600 rejections before publishing his first story.
James Joyce’s Dubliners – Rejected by 22 publishing houses before it was published.
• Joseph Heller’s Catch-22 – Faced 22 rejections before becoming a classic.
• Frank Herbert’s Dune – Rejected 23 times before becoming one of the best-selling science fiction novels.
• James Patterson’s The Thomas Berryman Number – Rejected 31 times before publication.
• Alex Haley’s Roots – Received 200 consecutive rejections before becoming a publishing sensation, selling 1.5 million copies in its first seven months.
• Madeleine L’Engle’s A Wrinkle in Time – Rejected 26 times before becoming a beloved classic.
• Margaret Mitchell’s Gone with the Wind – Rejected 38 times before winning the Pulitzer Prize.
• Anne Frank’s The Diary of a Young Girl – Rejected 15 times before becoming one of the most-read books worldwide.
• Dick Wimmer’s Irish Wine – Rejected 162 times over 25 years before publication.
• Kate DiCamillo – Received 473 rejection letters before her debut novel.
These are just a handful of examples. The point? Publishers and agents get it wrong constantly.
Great Books Get Passed Up While Mediocre Ones Get Greenlit
For every phenomenal book that gets rejected, there are mediocre ones that make it through. Ever read a traditionally published book and thought, How did this get past an editor?
Poorly written books still get deals—books with:
• Plot holes big enough to drive a truck through.
• Flat, one-dimensional characters.
• Poor pacing—too slow, too fast, or all over the place.
• A plot twist that makes no sense and leaves readers frustrated.
• Bloated word count, stretching a story that could be told in half the length.
Why? Because publishing is not always about quality. Sometimes, it’s about timing. Sometimes, it’s about connections. Sometimes, it’s about what they think might sell—even when they’re wrong.
Most Editors Don’t Even Read Your Whole Manuscript
Here’s a dirty little secret: many acquisitions editors don’t actually read your entire book before rejecting it.
In fact, a lot of times, they don’t read it at all.
At many publishing houses and literary agencies, the first line of defense isn’t the editor—it’s an intern or an assistant. That’s right. Your book might not even make it to the person who makes the decisions.
I know because I worked in the industry. I’ve been in literary agencies, talent agencies, television studios—you name it. And I can tell you that a shocking number of rejection letters are sent based on the first few chapters alone.
Sometimes, the manuscript never even gets opened.
Instead, a 20-something intern fresh out of college—with little to no experience—skims a few pages and makes the call. That’s who decides whether your years of hard work are worth passing up the chain.
Never Let Publishing Gatekeepers Destroy Your Confidence
Look, rejection sucks. There’s no sugarcoating that. But what’s worse is letting an industry that thrives on rejection make you feel like you’re not good enough.
Acquisitions editors and agents are not gods. They don’t determine your worth. They don’t get to define your success.
Some of them will try to act like they have all the answers. Some of them will throw you a fake “we wish you luck” while reveling in their supposed authority. Some will even get a kick out of tearing you down.
But guess what? They’re just people. And people—especially in publishing—are wrong all the time.
The Only Way to Fail Is to Quit
At the end of the day, the only real failure in publishing is giving up on yourself.
❌ Stephen King? Rejected.
❌ Andy Weir? Rejected.
❌ Agatha Christie? Rejected.
❌ Louis L’Amour? Rejected.
❌ Jack London? Rejected.
❌ James Joyce? Rejected.
❌ Joseph Heller? Rejected.
❌ Frank Herbert? Rejected.
❌ James Patterson? Rejected.
❌ Alex Haley? Rejected.
❌ Madeleine L’Engle? Rejected.
❌ Margaret Mitchell? Rejected.
❌ Anne Frank? Rejected.
❌ Dick Wimmer? Rejected.
❌ Kate DiCamillo? Rejected.
❌ Zane Grey? Rejected—had to self-publish his first novel before breaking through.
❌ Dean Koontz? Rejected—wrote over a dozen books before hitting bestseller status.
Rejection doesn’t mean your book isn’t good. It just means the wrong person read it—or worse, didn’t read it at all.
The publishing industry wants writers to believe that they hold all the power, that a rejection from them is the final word. But that’s a lie.
• Catherine Ryan Hyde – Endured 122 rejections before her first short story was published; her novel Pay It Forward became a bestseller and was adapted into a film.
• Shannon Hale – Received nine rejections before her novel The Goose Girl was published, leading to a successful writing career.
• Emily Henry – Authored several young adult novels before her adult romance Beach Read became a bestseller.
• Barbara Taylor Bradford – Worked as a journalist and wrote multiple books before her debut novel, A Woman of Substance, became a bestseller at age 46.
• Colleen Hoover – Self-published her early works before gaining widespread recognition and bestseller status.
• Freida McFadden – Balanced a medical career while writing multiple novels before achieving bestseller status.
• Dean Koontz – Wrote over a dozen science fiction novels before achieving bestseller status with Whispers.
Many Authors Write Dozens of Books Before Their First Bestseller
• There’s a myth in publishing that a debut novel must be a blockbuster for an author to be successful. While some writers do strike gold with their first book, that is the exception, not the rule. Many of the most celebrated authors wrote dozens—even hundreds—of books before one finally became a bestseller.
• Dean Koontz began his writing career in the late 1960s, authoring over a dozen science fiction novels. It wasn’t until 1980, with the publication of Whispers, that he achieved significant commercial success. Prior to this breakthrough, Koontz had written extensively under various pseudonyms, exploring different genres and honing his craft.
• L. Ron Hubbard wrote countless pulp fiction stories and novels before Dianetics in 1950 became a massive commercial success. Georges Simenon wrote over 200 books under pseudonyms before gaining widespread recognition with his Maigret detective series. Corín Tellado, one of the most prolific authors in history, published thousands of romance novels over decades, only some of which became bestsellers.
• For every author like Harper Lee (To Kill a Mockingbird) or Donna Tartt (The Secret History), whose debuts became instant bestsellers, there are far more who spent years—if not decades—writing book after book before they finally got their big break. Success in publishing is often a long game.
I know this firsthand. I entered my standalone novel in a contest with a Big 5 publisher, and they asked for the full manuscript. It was a moment of excitement—a chance for my book to be traditionally published. But after reviewing the full manuscript, they came back with a rejection, saying that while they enjoyed the premise and concept, they didn’t think my writing could stand nose-to-nose with their bestsellers.
And yet—many traditionally published authors never make the bestseller list until they’ve written a few books. Some never make it at all, and they still have long, thriving careers. A publisher’s opinion doesn’t determine your worth as a writer, and it certainly doesn’t predict your success.
The point? If your first book doesn’t become a bestseller, that doesn’t mean your career is over. Keep writing. Keep publishing. Many authors don’t hit their stride until their fifth, tenth, or even fiftieth book. The only way to fail is to quit.
Your Book Deserves a Shot—And You Do Too
So the next time an agent, editor, or intern rejects you—remember this:
✅ They are not the final say.
✅ They do not determine your worth.
✅ They do not get to decide whether your story matters.
The only way you lose in this industry is if you let them convince you to quit.
Embrace Where You Are Accepted
The world is full of readers waiting for books they haven’t found yet. Maybe yours is the one they’re looking for.
Not every path to success looks the same, and not every writer will land a massive deal with a Big 5 publisher. That doesn’t mean your work isn’t valuable or that your career won’t thrive. Sometimes, it’s about finding where you fit rather than forcing yourself into a mold that wasn’t made for you.
I didn’t land a huge deal with a traditional publisher—but I did secure a six-book contract with a small press. That’s a major achievement. It means my work resonated with the right people, the ones who believed in my vision and wanted to invest in my books. That’s what matters.
The truth is, there are many ways to get published. If one door closes, another is waiting to be opened.
Explore Different Publishing Paths
There is no one right way to become an author. Take the time to research different publishing paths and choose the one that aligns with your goals, resources, and creative control.
Traditional Publishing (Big 5 or Mid-Sized Presses)
• You work with a literary agent who pitches your book to publishers.
• If accepted, the publisher covers editing, design, and marketing.
• The process can take years, and competition is fierce.
Small Press Publishing
• Many small presses accept submissions without an agent.
• They offer traditional publishing benefits like editing and distribution but often have more flexibility and author input.
• Ideal for niche genres, debut authors, and those who want a more personal publishing experience.
📚 Independent & Hybrid Publishing
• Some publishers allow authors to invest in their books while still offering professional support.
• These options provide more creative control, though the financial risk is higher.
• A great fit for authors who want more involvement in marketing and production.
Self-Publishing
• The author controls everything: cover design, editing, marketing, and pricing.
• Platforms like Amazon KDP, IngramSpark, and Draft2Digital make publishing accessible.
• This route requires significant effort, but it also offers higher royalties and full creative control.
Find the Path That Works for You
The publishing industry isn’t one-size-fits-all. Some authors thrive in the traditional world, while others flourish in self-publishing. Some find success through small presses, and others take a hybrid approach.
No matter which path you choose, your books deserve to be out in the world. The key is to embrace the opportunities that accept you and your work rather than fixating on the doors that don’t open.
Success isn’t defined by how you publish—it’s defined by persistence, passion, and finding your readers.
Keep writing. Keep pushing. Prove them wrong.
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