The Groundhog's Shadow and Other Gray Thoughts

The tradition of Groundhog Day goes all the way back to the 1880’s and is based on weather lore that came over to the U.S. with German Immigrants. It’s sort of a silly thing, where the outcome has a 50% chance of being right. Despite those odds, poor Phil has only had a 39% accuracy rate. 

Book publishing has its own set of odds that can be quite daunting. Here are just a few examples: