Good Analysis, Bad Analysis

Why did Scott Walker defeat Tom Barrett in yesterday’s Wisconsingubernatorialrecall election? There is no single, simple answer to that question, any more than there is a single, simple answer to the question of why the Celtics defeated the Heat last night. But based on our knowledge of elections, we can identify some guideposts. Any reasonable analysis of an election’s outcome should start with this list:

– Physical characteristics of the candidates. Generally speaking, candidates that appear...