TD Economics: How Far Will They Go? China’s Outlook for 2025

We expect China’s growth to clock in at 4.8% in 2024, in line with the 5%-ish target set out by policymakers. Next year, authorities are likely to set a growth target of around 5%, along with an expansion in the fiscal deficit1. However, risks are tilted to the downside and our forecast is for a 4.7% expansion, a virtual repeat of this year’s performance, as the trade war with the U.S. gains