Week 5, Day 2: Trust

“Glory to God in heaven, and on earth peace among those whom he favors.” (Luke 2:14)

The world’s first nuclear explosion from the Trinity Test. From Wikimedia Commons

In game theory, there’s a classic illustration called “The Prisoner’s Dilemma.” Two thieves are arrested and each partner winds up with two options: confess and rat out your partner, in which case you’ll go to prison for one year and your partner will go to prison for eight years; or cooperate (stay silent) and you both will get two years in prison. But if you both choose to betray the other, you will both go to prison for five years. While you’re considering your options, you know that your partner has the same choice to make.

How much do you trust your partner? Which choice do you make?

There are different permutations of this problem that change it substantially. What happens if you play several “rounds” in a row? If your partner betrayed you last time, do you betray them this time? Do you choose a cooperative strategy or a competitive one?

Mathematicians, psychologists, and political scientists have been studying game theory since the 1940’s. Research into game theory became much more intense during the Cold War, when the threat of nuclear Mutually Assured Destruction (MAD) by the world’s superpowers made such “games” a matter of policy and of life and death. Several game theorists came to the conclusion—and argued to American politicians—that it would be best to preemptively launch nuclear weapons at the Soviet Union.

Mathematician John Nash (the subject of the movie A Beautiful Mind) had a different perspective: goals could be maximized if nations cooperated instead of betraying each other. Thank God policy makers listened and learned about the “Nash Equilibrium” rather than listening to the war hawks!

One of my favorite psychologists, John Gottman, talks about game theory in relation to marriages and family relationships. He explored how spouses engage in strategic choices about such “games” in everything from domestic chores, to financial decisions, to sex. Are the partners cooperating for the best outcome for everyone, or are they competing to minimize their own losses? These games get more complex as we consider games played by larger groups over longer times: families, congregations, or political factions.

Why am I talking about game theory during the Advent, Christmas, and Epiphany season? Because I believe that if “Peace on Earth” is to mean anything beyond warm fuzzy feelings and religious platitudes, we have to become conscious of a) our own consciousness and b) the social systems of which we are a part. Being at peace in yourself, or with others, means asking questions like “what am I willing to risk? Who do I trust? Who am I looking out for, and whose interests and values do I prioritize in this situation?”

Let’s be honest: trust is at a minimum these days. I have a hard time trusting institutions or human individuals, and I certainly don’t trust large groups of people to do the right thing. Yet game theory teaches us important things about how to behave when trust is low.

Becoming conscious—of my unreliable perceptions, my automatic responses, and my beliefs—helps me approach questions about relationships and trust more deliberately. If the world is to have peace, it must also work on trust!

Prayer: God, save us from using cynicism to protect ourselves from disappointment. Put trustworthy people in our lives, and help us act for the benefit of all. Amen.